NY Times Columnist (Who Speaks Chinese Fluently) Discusses How US Could Bumble Into War

President Xi Jinping reviewed the Chinese military’s fleet in the South China Sea last year.Li Gang/Xinhua, via Associated Press

By Nicholas Kristof Opinion Columnist

It would be difficult to think of a worse disaster, and more unnecessary one, than an American war with China. And there’s growing apprehension among some strategists that the risks of such a spark are growing around Taiwan.

So I visited Taiwan, where I lived and first learned Chinese in the 1980s at the Taipei Language Institute, to report on the risks and how to reduce them. I left thinking that probably the risks can be managed, but that there is indeed a significant danger that things go badly wrong. The danger is less of a sudden amphibious invasion of Taiwan by mainland China, but rather steps by Beijing to pressure Taiwan — such as a cyber attack on the electrical grid, or the severing of a fiber-optic cable that carries internet to Taiwan. Beijing’s idea would be to sow chaos, disrupt the economy, and bully Taiwan into making concessions toward unification. However, Taiwan might well escalate, and we could soon have a war that would upset the global economy (90 percent of advanced computer chips come from Taiwan) and drag in the United States

President Trump and his administration have been alert to the risks. I’m not a fan of Trump’s foreign policy generally, as any sentient reader knows, but I am sympathetic to the idea of Washington showing Taiwan more support. However, this has to be done very carefully to avoid triggering a crisis, and I don’t have confidence in Washington’s ability to do things carefully. In any case, here’s my column on the risks of conflict with China over Taiwan, and how we can reduce them. Please read!

Meanwhile, a bit of progress in Hong Kong: Chief Executive Carrie Lam has promised to withdraw the extradition bill that initially triggered the protests. Previously, China had ferociously resisted compromise, so this is a good sign. Unfortunately, I don’t think it’ll be enough. The protesters have four more demands, and they are enormously distrustful of the authorities, for good reason. For example, many thousands of people could be prosecuted as “rioters,” so they won’t rest until they get an amnesty and an official acknowledgment that the protests were not riots. So I’m afraid that the government’s action is too little, too late.

In Britain, the upheaval isn’t in the streets but in Parliament. Boris Johnson has been a destructive force ever since he was a young journalist notorious for writing articles about the European Union that were funny but false. Now he has torn apart the Conservative Party, damaged Britain’s economy, lost his majority and left Britain and Europe on very uncertain ground. It’s deeply unfortunate that at the moment when the Conservative Party has a disastrous leader, so does the rival Labour Party, in Jeremy Corbyn. If there are new elections, it would be nice to see a surge for the Liberal Democrats, who are the clearest pro-Europe force left.

The worst humanitarian crisis in the world, according to the United Nations, is in Yemen. Now an international panel has issued an important, stinging rebuke of all parties to the conflict, including those like the United States that have supplied weapons and intelligence to sustain the war. The panel also provided a confidential list of war crimes suspects to the U.N. And I hope that members of Congress will continue to push the Trump administration to stop supporting Saudi Arabia’s involvement in war crimes in Yemen.

Marianne Williamson gave an interview on The New Yorker radio hour podcast in which she was asked who she would like to have as secretary of state. “Nicholas Kristof would be the best secretary of state,” she answered, but then noted that I had scoffed recently that she didn’t even belong in the Democratic debate lineup. “He can’t stand me, so he probably wouldn’t want to work for me,” she said. Whoah! Whoah! On second thought, maybe she does belong in the debates!

And now some Times news: We have a new newsletter, “Debatable,” that is meant to give readers a sense of the great debates playing out in our pages — and beyond. You can sign up here.

And now here’s my column from Taiwan about the risks of a conflict erupting there with China, and how we can better manage that risk. Please read!

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