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This is a national moment when we need a Winston Churchill to lead us in the fight with the coronavirus. Instead, President Trump reassures us that “it’s going away” — his words as he spoke in Arizona at a packed megachurch where few people wore masks. Instead of Churchill, we have a leader who tries to deceive us, not the enemy, and then helps that enemy infiltrate our homes and churches.
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As this map by my graphics colleague Nathaniel Lash suggests, some 27 states are reporting increasing numbers of cases, while just 10 and Washington D.C. are reporting falling numbers (the rest are holding steady). Arizona has the highest number of new cases per day per million population, and Texas, California, Arizona and several other states have reported record numbers of cases in the last few days.
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That’s my column today. Brace yourself.
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The Economic Disaster Ahead
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Whenever I talk to epidemiologists, I’m struck by the gulf between public opinion and expert opinion. Most people and the financial markets seem to think that we’re going through a tough period but that it will be over soon. Epidemiologists on the other hand, think that for at least the next year we’ll be fighting the virus, losing friends and family, and suffering from a depressed economy.
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Likewise, the I.M.F. says it expects the global economy to shrink 4.9 percent this year and to recover more slowly than many expect. And remember that disasters sometimes feed on each other. The economic crises could increase the risk of upheaval in Saudi Arabia or Iran that would interrupt oil supplies, or could increase the chance of Chinese adventurism in the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait. In other words, I fear that this will be a longer and more painful road than many expect.
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