"Will The Economy Re-Elect Donald Trump?" By Nicholas Kristof

A rally last June in Washington sought to pressure lawmakers to combat suicide. Evelyn Hockstein for The Washington Post, via Getty Images

"Will The Economy Re-Elect Donald Trump?"

By Nicholas Kristof Opinion Columnist

President Trump has boasted of the strong economy, and he has a point. I would caveat his boasts by noting that this is a continuation of the Obama recovery and that some of the strength comes from trillion dollar deficits that will have to be repaid, but he is right that unemployment is low and the economy vigorous. That, he thinks, is his ticket to re-election.

Yet we should note that we have a bifurcated economy, and that there is an “other America” that has been left behind and looks very different. Even during this period of strong growth, suicides are at their highest level since World War II. Deaths of despair (from drugs, alcohol and suicide) have lowered life expectancy for three of the last four years — which didn’t happen even during the Great Depression.

I came across research on pain, showing that one-third of Americans report that they “often” or “very often” were in pain in the last month. And some 20 million Americans say in effect that every day of the last 30 days was a bad day for them. This is real, as the gains are real, but my column argues that we have to make the economy work better for all Americans. And for now the central fact about America’s economy is not its vigor but its inequality. Please read! Trump’s 2019 Economic Growth Is Slower Than Obama’s Last 3 Years https://paxonbothhouses.blogspot.com/2020/02/trumps-2019-economic-growth-is-slower.html Comparison Of Trump And Obama's Job Records https://paxonbothhouses.blogspot.com/2020/02/comparison-of-trump-and-obamas-job.html Fact-Checking Trump's State Of The Union https://paxonbothhouses.blogspot.com/2020/02/fact-checking-trumps-state-of-union.html

Trump’s Acquittal

It’s not surprising that Trump was acquitted by a Senate that refused to call witnesses. I do find it somewhat surprising that the process may have helped Trump politically, with his approval rating rising to a new high in the Gallup polls.

Since the trial avoided fact-gathering and evidence, it also leaves a shadow over Trump — and over Mike Pence and Mike Pompeo. Both played enabling roles in the Ukraine scandal. I think this will continue to dog both Pence and Pompeo.

Still, my take is that the impeachment process and Ukraine mess won’t change many minds in America about who to vote for. What will be paramount is the economy. If the economy is strong in November, Trump has a good chance to be re-elected. If it weakens, he is likely to be defeated. Beyond the economy, I think Trump is particularly vulnerable on health care. As my column today notes, 400,000 children have lost health insurance on his watch.

At the end of my column today, I have an update on the incident at U.S. Bank that I wrote about a week ago. It involved U.S. Bank firing two employees who used their own money to help a customer stranded at a gas station on Christmas Eve. The column went online on Saturday afternoon, and within a few hours, the C.E.O. phoned me to say that he took responsibility and “this is not who we are.” He added: “We will fix this.”

Here’s what has happened since. The C.E.O. reached out to both employees to see about bringing them back to the bank. One, Abigail Gilbert, will go back to her old position. The other, Emily James, has talked with the bank about a new role with more responsibility and pay, but she is also talking to other potential employers. I’ll keep you updated.

I’m glad this is moving in a positive direction. But there is a larger problem here of labor injustice, and columnists writing about banks behaving badly is not a scalable solution. That’s why I think the larger solution is for private sector unions to regain a bit more power, and for corporations to be less focused on quarterly profits and more on serving ALL stakeholders, including employees and customers and communities.

I’m running around the country on a book tour for my new book, “Tightrope,” written with my wife and co-author, Sheryl WuDunn. As you read this, we’re back on the family farm in Yamhill, Ore., my beloved hometown, where some of the book unfolds. We did a book talk Friday in the local town of McMinnville, with many of the people in the book present. We owe so much to the people we interviewed for speaking honestly about the challenges they are wrestling with — and we also owe so much to those of you who have read “Tightrope” and told friends about it. That’s why it’s still thriving on the best-seller list, and why several of the presidential candidates are engaging with it.

Now here’s my column about Trump’s efforts to run for re-election on an economy that is performing well — while still leaving millions behind. We live in two Americas. Check it out.