Alan: My commentary on last night's SOTU -- and four other Fact-Checkers -- follow NYT's fact-checking immediately below.
Not surprisingly, there was not a word about Obama saving the United States -- and the world -- from an unprecedented economic meltdown; then proceeding to build an expanding recovery which Trump inherited and, predictably, capitalized on.
Nor was there mention of Trump's ongoingly calamitous Tax Law which bought short-term economic gains at the cost of a soon-to-begin lollapalooza recession - or worse.
Today's financial press ran an article saying that Warren Buffett has never been as down on the U.S. stock market as he is right now.
New York Times:
Last Updated
Fact-Checking Trump’s 2020 State of the Union Address and the Democratic Response
President Trump addressed a divided Congress as his impeachment trial neared its conclusion.
Image by Erin Schaff/The New York Times
Image by Erin Schaff/The New York Times
- President Trump spoke to a joint session of Congress Tuesday night, a day before the Senate was expected to acquit him in his impeachment trial. A team of New York Times reporters who cover the economy, national security, health care and more listened and fact-checked his claims as he speaks.
- Mr. Trump exaggerated and inaccurately portrayed elements of his record, including that there has been a decline in drug overdose deaths for the first time in more than 30 years (mostly true), that the administration has sought to always protect Medicare and Social Security (misleading) and that there is a blue-collar boom (needs context).
- Among those in attendance in the House chamber on Tuesday night were the opposition leader Juan Guaidó, whom Mr. Trump singled out as the “true and legitimate president” of Venezuela, and the conservative talk show host Rush Limbaugh, who received a Presidential Medal of Freedom. Catch up on the key moments.
This is exaggerated.
It’s a stretch to claim that all 275 pieces of legislation have garnered bipartisan support. According to the nonpartisan Factcheck.org, half passed by a voice vote and at least two dozen of those bills passed with fewer than 17 Republican votes.
Of the three bills Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan cited, the Paycheck Fairness Act passed with just seven Republican votes, the Raise the Wage Act had three Republicans on board and the Elijah E. Cummings Lower Drug Costs Now Act garnered two Republican votes.
This lacks context.
This claim was made by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan in the official Democratic response. Assessing it depends on the time frame. Over the last two decades, by several measures, pay for typical workers has barely increased; it was not until 2017 that America’s median household income, adjusted for inflation, topped the level it hit in 1999. But that median grew by 1.4 percent in 2017 and 0.9 percent in 2018, according to the Census Bureau.
Executive pay is up nearly tenfold since 1979 according to the Economic Policy Institute, a liberal research organization, and by one measure, it grew 10 percent in 2018. But it remained lower in 2018 than it was in 2007.
This is true.
The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement earned the endorsement of the powerful A.F.L.-C.I.O., which had not endorsed a trade agreement since a pact with Jordan in 2001. But that endorsement was largely because of the work of congressional Democrats, who made changes to the agreement that strengthened its protections for labor rights in Mexico. Most labor unions ultimately signed on to the U.S.M.C.A., but not all — the United Automobile Workers, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, and the United Food and Commercial Workers have continued to criticize the pact.
Partly true.
No doubt that the Trump administration is closer to a peace settlement with the Afghan Taliban than any previous administration. President Trump has also promised a complete troop withdrawals from Afghanistan, though he has yet to order it. But since May, Mr. Trump has actually deployed more than 14,000 troops to the Middle East to deter Iran from potential attacks and to safeguard American forces and bases. The partial troop withdrawal from Syria last fall was just that, partial.
About 500 troops in northeastern Syria are still fighting the Islamic State, wedged between Turkish proxy forces, Russian ground troops and Syrian government forces. In Iraq, about 5,200 troops remain, though the defense secretary, Mark T. Esper, has said he is considering withdrawing some forces from the country, according to Defense Department officials.
This is true.
On its face, this is a factually accurate statement: The Islamic State controlled about 23,300 square miles in January 2017 and was pushed out of its last patch of territory, in Baghuz, Syria, in March 2019. An American raid on Mr. al-Baghdadi’s compound in October 2019 led the Islamic State leader to kill himself before he could be captured.
But it is also important to remember that national security officials and experts had always anticipated that the war against the Islamic State, started by former President Barack Obama in 2014, would result in pushing the extremist group from its self-declared caliphate. Additionally, while the Islamic State no longer controls any territory, it remains a potent threat: Administration officials estimate up to 18,000 fighters still remain and the group is resurging in rural areas in Iraq and Syria where American and local forces have little physical presence.
This is misleading.
Policies for so-called sanctuary cities vary by location. In most of the cities, politicians direct police departments not to transfer undocumented immigrants suspected of or charged with crimes to the custody of Immigration and Customs Enforcement. But such suspects are not automatically released unless they were to make bail.
This is mostly true.
The “Medicare for all” bills co-sponsored by many Democratic lawmakers would provide government health benefits to all “residents” of the country, a group that appears to include undocumented immigrants. The bill also specifies that coverage will not be denied to residents on the basis of “citizenship status.” Whether this aspect of the bill would bankrupt the country is more questionable. The Medicare for all bills are expected to require large increases in federal spending, but the coverage of undocumented immigrants would represent a small fraction of that spending.
This is misleading.
The United States has lost about four million of its 17 million factory jobs since NAFTA went into effect in 1994. But American factory employment actually increased in the years immediately after the deal going into effect, and few economists blame the North American trade deal for the kind of immense job loss the president is talking about. Economists debate the jobs effects from NAFTA, but most agree that the deal had a relatively modest impact, destroying jobs in some communities where factories went to Mexico, but creating other jobs elsewhere. China’s entry into the global trading system when it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, as well as continued automation in factories, has led to more significant job losses in the manufacturing sector.
This is mostly true.
The drug overdose rate did fall in 2018, after the year with the peak overdose deaths in American history.
This is misleading.
It is true that, for a portion of last year, the Consumer Price Index for drugs declined. But that measure does not include all prescription drugs. (And it has since risen again.) The Food and Drug Administration has approved a large number of generic drugs, but few of them have made it to market yet, so they have had little impact on drug prices, as a Wall Street Journal analysis showed last year.
This needs context.
Real median household income is now at its highest levels. And average hourly earnings growth has accelerated under President Trump for manufacturing workers, outpacing inflation. But employment growth in manufacturing, which Mr. Trump promoted in his speech last year, slowed to fewer than 50,000 jobs in 2019 — the worst rate of his presidency and the second worst of the long recovery from recession. And job growth has slowed sharply — from 2.6 percent at the start of 2019 to 1.3 percent at the end of the year — in so-called middle-wage sectors that include mining, construction and transportation.
This needs context.
President Trump did not use the phrase “climate change,” but the plan to plant one trillion trees — unveiled last month by the World Economic Forum in Davos and embraced by Republicans as a way to address global warming — will reduce greenhouse gas emissions. As trees grow, they absorb and store the carbon dioxide emissions that are driving planetary warming.
But just how much all these trees will help is disputed. According to a report last year by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine, the United States produced about 5.8 billion tons of emissions in 2019. Getting that much carbon out of the atmosphere with trees alone would require planting on about 371 million acres — about four times the area of California.
This is misleading.
The Trump administration has built 115 miles of new border wall, almost all of it in areas where dilapidated barriers or vehicle barricades once stood. The White House recently celebrated a federal court ruling that would allow it to use $3.6 billion in military construction funds to build 175 miles of barrier in parts of Texas, Arizona and California. That decision is being fought in the courts. The administration also does not have all of the private land it needs to build the border wall. In South Texas, the administration plans to build border wall on 162 miles, and 144 of that is privately owned. As of December, the administration acquired just three of the private miles. Migrants have used power tools to cut through the border wall and ladder made from cheap materials to scale it.
This is misleading.
Not only has President Trump failed to strengthen Medicare and Social Security, but the financial outlook for both trusts has not improved or worsened. That is at least partly the result of Mr. Trump’s tax law, which has left the Treasury Department to collect fewer taxes from Americans and, in turn, invest less money into each program. Last April, the government projected that Medicare funds would be depleted by 2026, three years earlier than estimated in 2017. The report noted that less money will flow into the fund because of low wages and lower taxes.
This is misleading.
General Suleimani commanded all activities in Iraq, but there is no public evidence — other than President Trump’s own claim — that he directed the December attacks. While General Suleimani was presumed to be planning more attacks, Mr. Trump has evaded his own cabinet members’ statements, later amended, that the general was killed because a new attack was “imminent.” It is a critical omission, because the killing may be considered illegal under international law unless an attack was imminent.
This is false.
The nonpartisan International Trade Commission has estimated that the agreement would create about 28,000 jobs in the auto sector. President Trump’s own United States trade representative has a higher estimate — 76,000 new jobs in the next five years — but still one that falls short of Mr. Trump’s claims today. The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement raises barriers to imported cars and car parts in an effort to encourage auto manufacturing in the United States, which results in some job gains. But in so doing, it will also raise the price of American cars and other vehicles, and lower both vehicle consumption and production, economists say.
This is weighted but mostly true.
Bills to create a national “Medicare for all” system have been co-sponsored by large numbers of Democratic lawmakers. The bills would eliminate private health insurance, but they would provide those people with generous government health insurance instead. Technically, this would not be a fully socialized health care system, since the bill would allow doctors, hospitals and other health care providers to remain private.
This is exaggerated.
President Trump is likely referring to the projected military spending of members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which is expected to be $400 billion more by 2024, compared with 2016.
As of November 2019, nine countries, including the United States, had met the NATO goal of each member spending at least 2 percent of its gross domestic on its own defense. That’s up from five countries in 2016. Mr. Trump can take some credit for urging other countries to meet that goal, but it’s worth noting that the members had in 2014 already pledged to meet the 2 percent goal by 2024.
This is misleading.
Under Venezuela’s constitution, and while serving as president of the country’s National Assembly, Juan Guaidó declared himself Venezuela’s leader after a disputed vote in 2018 cast widespread doubt on the re-election of President Nicolás Maduro. The United States and more than 50 other countries — mostly in the West — have recognized Mr. Guaidó as Venezuela’s legitimate president. But countries like Russia, China, Iran and even the United Nations still recognize Mr. Maduro’s government, which won a seat last fall on the United Nations Human Rights Council.
This is misleading.
The president’s claim is based on a White House report comparing premiums in the individual insurance market before the Affordable Care Act with those several years after its enactment. That report made several methodological choices that tended to increase the difference in prices. Health plans for a far larger group of Americans, who obtain health insurance through their jobs, have increased by smaller margins. Over all, however, health insurance prices have increased in recent years.
This lacks evidence.
New rules that will require public disclosure of the prices negotiated between health care providers and insurance companies are a new policy, without much strong evidence about their effects. Some experts, including economists who have advised the president, think transparency could reduce health care prices. But other experts believe the policy could have a perverse effect, increasing prices. New Hampshire, a state that has introduced a similar policy on a more limited scale, has shown modest price declines for certain services, but not “massive” price reductions.
This is false.
The president has taken multiple steps to weaken or eliminate current protections for Americans with pre-existing health conditions. These efforts include legislation he championed, regulation his administration has finished, and a lawsuit the Justice Department is litigating that would declare the Affordable Care Act unconstitutional.
This needs context.
President Trump’s promises to reverse the flow of American jobs outsourced abroad have shown limited results. Foreign direct investment in the United States has not accelerated under Mr. Trump, and data from the “Reshoring Initiative” show companies announced plans to bring 145,000 jobs back to the United States in Mr. Trump’s first two terms.
This needs context.
President Trump’s aggressive use of tariffs did bring the Chinese to the negotiating table, and the United States and China signed an initial trade deal last month. But the president’s trade victory came at a high cost. His heavy use of tariffs has been painful for American consumers and businesses that are paying higher prices for products, and economists say it has weighed on the manufacturing sector that he wanted to help.
This is mostly true.
If you count President Barack Obama’s budget passed for 2017, and take into account 2018 and 2019, President Trump will have spent $2.1 trillion, as he has yet to completely spend the 2020 budget. Adjusted for inflation, both Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama spent more each year from 2007 through 2012, according to Breaking Defense, an industry publication.
This is false.
Since President Trump won election in 2016, the S&P 500-stock index and the Dow Jones industrial average are each up about 60 percent.
This is true.
The unemployment rate for women hit 3.4 percent in September 2019 before nudging back up. That number was the lowest since September 1953.
This is partly true.
Previous administrations did not change or replace NAFTA, but they did get close. Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama planned to update NAFTA not by rewriting the agreement itself, but by passing the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a multicountry Pacific trade deal. That deal also included Canada and Mexico and its provisions would have superseded and updated NAFTA.
This is false.
According to the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, the United States has added fewer than 11,000 new manufacturing establishments since President Trump took office. The bulk of those — more than 8,000 — employ five people or fewer.
This is exaggerated.
The United States is the top producer of oil and natural gas, but it is inaccurate to credit the Trump administration or President Trump’s deregulation agenda. According to the Energy Information Administration, the United States became the world’s top oil producer in 2013 and overtook Russia as the world’s leading gas producer as far back as 2009.
This is true.
The unemployment rate under President Trump has averaged 4 percent. That is lower than even President Lyndon B. Johnson, who averaged 4.2 percent. Mr. Trump has benefited from inheriting a low unemployment rate from President Barack Obama.
This needs context.
Prime-age participation — the share of people working or looking for work from ages 25 to 54 — has increased during President Trump’s tenure, climbing to 82.9 percent in December from 81.5 percent in January 2017.
Even the overall participation rate, which should be declining because of the United States’ aging demographics, has stabilized as the strong labor market keeps workers on the job. It is unclear precisely which numbers Mr. Trump is referring to when he references 300,000 working-age adults dropping out of the labor market under the Obama administration and 3.5 million joining under his.
This is exaggerated.
While the American military is buying and building new equipment, such as aircraft carriers, the F-35 fighter jet and the B-21 bomber, the military still is equipped with old and aging equipment, decades old, in need of replacement and constant repair. The B-52 bomber, fielded in the Cold War’s heyday, is still flying sorties all over the world.
This is true.
Unemployment is 3.5 percent, a 50-year low.
This needs context.
It is unclear how President Trump defines “soaring.” It is true that wages and median income have risen on Mr. Trump’s watch, as they did in the final years under President Barack Obama. But wage growth remains comparatively low for an American economy with such low unemployment, and well below the levels it enjoyed in the late 1990s.
This is false.
The American economic expansion has entered a record 11th year, and the unemployment rate is at a 50-year low. But by most conventional measures, including wage growth for typical workers and the growth rate of the economy, it is far from the best ever. Growth was stronger in some years under President George W. Bush, most recently.
This claim is false.
President Trump’s tax cuts were initially estimated at $1.5 trillion over 10 years by the Congressional Budget Office, an estimate that has since grown to around $2 trillion. But those figures are nowhere close to a record tax cut. As a share of the economy, Mr. Trump’s cuts rank around No. 8, according to Treasury Department data.
President Trump will deliver his third State of the Union address on Tuesday night, a day before the Senate is expected to acquit him in the impeachment trial.
Last year, Mr. Trump celebrated the strength of the American economy while highlighting what he called a “crisis on the southern border” in a speech that veered from the facts. Among other false and misleading claims, he inaccurately characterized the country’s economy as “the hottest in the world,” exaggerated job growth, and wrongly credited border barriers for low crime rates in El Paso and fewer border apprehensions in San Diego.
As he makes his case for re-election, Mr. Trump has continued to stretch the truth about his record on economic growth. He has falsely characterized a preliminary trade pact with China and a revised agreement with Mexico and Canada, both signed in January, as “the two biggest trade deals in history.” The recent military confrontation with Iran has also led Mr. Trump to mislead about the nuclear agreement signed with Tehran and his own defense budgets.
Alan: The strongest points in Trump's SOTU were his claims concerning economic growth.
However, last week the federal government announced the economic growth rate for 2019 - an anemic (and declining) rate of 2.1%.
During Trump's 2016 presidential campaign, The Bilious Billionaire promised a growth rate as high as 6% which everyone knew was impossible, and now we have a declining growth rate that is only one third Trump's prediction.
Then there is this revealing datum that provides needed context for Trump's economic record:
However, last week the federal government announced the economic growth rate for 2019 - an anemic (and declining) rate of 2.1%.
During Trump's 2016 presidential campaign, The Bilious Billionaire promised a growth rate as high as 6% which everyone knew was impossible, and now we have a declining growth rate that is only one third Trump's prediction.
Then there is this revealing datum that provides needed context for Trump's economic record:
"Trump’s Economic Growth Is Slower Than Obama’s Last 3 Years" Forbes Magazine
https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2020/02/01/trumps-economic-growth-is-slower-than-obamas-last-3-years/#7781d6004fed
Trillion Dollar Deficits Brought To You By The President Who Said: "I Am The King Of Debt. I Love Debt"
https://paxonbothhouses.blogspot.com/2019/10/trillion-dollar-deficits-brought-to-you.html
"Morning Joe" Scarborough Excoriates Trump's Lie-And-Deception Filled SOTU Address
https://paxonbothhouses.blogspot.com/2020/02/morning-joe-scarborough-excoriates.html
https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2020/02/01/trumps-economic-growth-is-slower-than-obamas-last-3-years/#7781d6004fed
Trillion Dollar Deficits Brought To You By The President Who Said: "I Am The King Of Debt. I Love Debt"
https://paxonbothhouses.blogspot.com/2019/10/trillion-dollar-deficits-brought-to-you.html
"Morning Joe" Scarborough Excoriates Trump's Lie-And-Deception Filled SOTU Address
https://paxonbothhouses.blogspot.com/2020/02/morning-joe-scarborough-excoriates.html
More Fact Checking:
Snopes: https://www.snopes.com/ap/2020/02/04/trumps-claims-in-his-state-of-union-address/
TIME: https://time.com/5777914/fact-check-state-of-the-union-2020/
TIME: https://time.com/5777914/fact-check-state-of-the-union-2020/
CNN: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/04/politics/fact-check-trump-state-of-the-union-2020/index.html
Excerpt: Delivering the Democrats’ response to President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer described the difference between the two parties as “pretty simple.”
“Democrats are trying to make your health care better,” Whitmer said.“Republicans in Washington are trying to take it away.”
Whitmer ended her remarks by referencing the vote the Republican-led Senate is expected to take Wednesday to acquit Trump of the two articles of impeachment approved by the Democrat-controlled House.
"The truth matters. Facts matter. And no one should be above the law," she said. "It’s time for action. Generations of Americans are counting on us. Let’s not let them down."
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