David Leonhardt On Joe Biden And The Two Very White, Quirky States Of Iowa And NH

White Momentum

By David Leonhardt Opinion Columnist

Joe Biden has a big lead among African-American Democrats — and African-Americans make up about 25 percent of the party’s voters. Among Latinos, who make up almost 10 percent, Biden is neck-and-neck with Bernie Sanders for the lead.

Biden’s strength with minority voters is an enormous advantage in the highly diverse Democratic Party. And yet this morning some pundits are wondering whether Biden is finished — because he appears to have come a disappointing fourth in Iowa.

That’s nuts.

Readers of this newsletter know that I think Biden has weaknesses as a presidential candidate. But he also has major strengths, including his experience, his political skills, his middle-class image and his evident humanity. Democratic voters (and political journalists) would be making a mistake to disqualify him based on a disappointing finish in one fairly small, overwhelmingly white, highly unrepresentative state.

For that matter, they’d be making a mistake to disqualify him if he also struggles in New Hampshire — which is likewise small, overwhelmingly white and highly unrepresentative.

There is no perfect candidate. Bernie Sanders is a self-avowed democratic socialist who may turn off swing voters. Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar have drawn support almost exclusively from white voters. Elizabeth Warren hasn’t yet won over either progressives or moderate Democrats. Given President Trump’s advantages — and the confident case he made for re-election in last night’s State of the Union — Democrats should not be rushing to eliminate qualified candidates.

The current nomination system is terribly flawed, precisely because it creates a narrative of disappointment around candidates who don’t fare well in two homogeneous states that lack a major city. Biden will unavoidably suffer from that (as Cory Booker and Kamala Harris already have). But voters and journalists should fight the instinct to make it a defining feature of the next two weeks.

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