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The coronavirus pandemic has hit those of us in the rich world hard, but imagine if you were the child of a Bangladesh rickshaw driver. One study found their earnings collapsing by an average of 78 percent.
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You wouldn’t have enough to eat and might never have the chance to return to school. You would face an increased risk of child marriage. For you, this crisis could have lifelong devastating consequences — and that’s the topic of my column today.
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We in the rich world have focused mostly on the impact of Covid-19 on the United States and other rich countries, and when the conversation has shifted to the developing world the issue has mainly been the direct impact of the virus. But my own take is that the coronavirus itself may not be so devastating in poor countries in terms of its direct effects (partly because these countries’ populations are so young) but that the impact on nutrition and education will be extremely damaging and may include famines. Please read.
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I’ve already been asked by newsletter readers how they can help, and my next column will address that question by listing five organizations doing a wonderful job at home and abroad. So stay tuned!
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Some Good News About the Virus
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I returned on Tuesday to the emergency department of the Jack D. Weiler Hospital in the Bronx, one of the hospitals I had visited for my column and video about the front lines. And I found something truly wonderful: empty beds!
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The hospital is still busy and struggling, no doubt about that. The entire emergency department is now a Covid-19 ward, with cases like broken legs dealt with in the waiting room (which has been moved outside to a tent). But it’s no longer a war zone. Stretchers are no longer stacked in double rows, and there are no longer traffic jams of stretchers trying to squeeze in. The doctors are hopeful, but they are begging members of the public to maintain social distancing so that they never again have to endure the kind of crisis that they’re now emerging from.
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On my Instagram account, I posted photos and interviews from the hospital visit.
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The Markets and the Virus
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If the empty beds are the good news, the bad news is that experts anticipate a long and difficult road ahead. I’ve been struck by the gulf between investors and epidemiologists. The financial markets seem to expect that we’ll have a wrenching second quarter but then will bounce back and by late this year will be mostly back to normal — a V recovery, fast down and fast up.
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Epidemiologists think that’s unlikely. They note that in countries like Italy and Spain, the numbers shot up very quickly but then came down only very gradually. And Singapore, which is the gold standard country for public health and pandemic response, had early success but now has an outbreak among laborers living in close quarters.
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The basic point, which I don’t think many Americans appreciate yet, is that although we can bend the curve, it bends back the moment we ease the rules. So if on May 15 we tried to go back to life as before, then by June 15 we’d have a huge new outbreak. Until we have herd immunity or a vaccine (or some very effective treatment), we’re vulnerable and we can’t go back to normal.
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It is true that if we can get the virus to a low level, then we can ease to some extent. Those with antibodies (a tiny share of the national population) can probably resume work. Perhaps schools can resume, very carefully, with temperature checks and frequent testing. But I don’t think we’re going to see concerts or cinemas or bar life resuming any time in 2020, and perhaps not in 2021. A great deal rides on developing a successful vaccine and manufacturing hundreds of millions of doses, and that would be a remarkable accomplishment to achieve in 2021.
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As an author whose book tour was partly canceled and who desperately wants to go out and talk about the book and report from around the country and the world, I wish it weren’t so. But I think we face a long and winding road ahead to recovery.
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The Global Toll
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While the burden at home will be difficult, we will get through this. I’m afraid that in the developing world, particularly in Africa and South Asia, the consequences for malnutrition, illiteracy, child marriage and gender inequity may be longstanding. Already, polio and vitamin A campaigns are being suspended, which is likely to mean more disability, blindness and death among children.
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This is a time of immense global challenge, and that means we should look outward as well as inward. We don’t know how to treat coronavirus, but we do know how to treat child malnutrition — and I hope the rich world will step up and assist. Please read my column!
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