"The Most Important Person On The Planet," David Leonhardt

"The Most Important Person On The Planet" 

By David Leonhardt Opinion Columnist

In a newsletter last year, I quoted the economist and author Robert H. Frank calling Steve Bullock “the most important person on the planet.”

Bullock, the two-term governor of Montana, is the only Democrat with a decent chance of winning the United States Senate election there this year. But Bullock had been insisting he would not run. Without him in the race, the Democrats’ chances of retaking the Senate would be significantly smaller. And only if the Democrats control the Senate, the House and the White House in 2021 is there any prospect of major action to combat climate change.

“The window of opportunity for effective action on the climate crisis is rapidly closing,” Frank argued. “Absent robust measures to curb greenhouse gases, climate scientists forecast steadily more frequent and intense storms, droughts, flooding, and wildfires. Alone among major political parties worldwide, Republicans have refused even to admit the existence of climate change, much less enact meaningful legislation for dealing with it.”

Yesterday, multiple news organizations reported that Bullock might be changing his mind and could soon announce that he would be running. He would be facing the incumbent, Steve Daines, a Republican and one of President Trump’s most eager supporters in Congress.

“Bullock running for Senate could end up having a bigger impact on a Democratic president’s domestic agenda than who wins the presidential nomination right now,” Benjy Sarlin of NBC News wrote.

If Bullock does run, he will face a tough race. Trump won Montana by more than 20 percentage points. But Bullock is a talented politician and a moderate Democrat who has won three statewide races in his career (one as attorney general). His joining the race would turn it from a likely Daines landslide to something much more uncertain. Montana’s other senator, Jon Tester, is a Democrat now serving his third term, and he and Bullock have similar political personas: simultaneously populist and centrist.

Joe Biden’s recent surge surely makes a campaign look more attractive to Bullock. Congressional Democrats in purple and red states have been deeply worried about the possibility of Bernie Sanders winning the nomination. As my colleague Nicholas Kristof put it, “Democratic members of the House — who presumably know something about their own districts — say that it would be harder for them to win with Sanders at the top of the ticket.”

Now that Biden has become the favorite for the nomination, the Democrats’ chances for winning races are starting to look better in places like Montana, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia.

Elsewhere

Larry Sabato, University of Virginia: “This is a big break for Democratic hopes in the Senate. Gov. Bullock is the only D who could conceivably win the Senate seat—though even for him, it will be tough.” Stephen Wolf, Daily Kos Elections: “This would be a very tough race, but Gov. Steve Bullock is about the only Democrat who could put Montana in play for the Senate. Would be a huge boost for Dems if he runs.” James Arkin and Marianne Levine, Politico: “Several other Democrats are running for the seat, even as party officials continue to recruit Bullock. Cora Neumann, a public health expert, Helena Mayor Wilmot Collins and veteran John Mues are already running for the nomination. Neumann led the field in fundraising last quarter by hauling in more than $450,000; she had $292,000 in cash on hand as of Dec. 31.”