Last week, Bill Gates conducted a Q&A on the internet message board site Reddit. A full transcript is available here. He agrees that the U.S. can follow the same course as China, provided the population practices social distancing, and the government is able to test on a much wider scale than it has been able to do to date.
One questioner asked Gates if he agreed with an Imperial College study in London, England, that predicted that with social distancing, 1 million to 1.2 million Americans could die, but if the economy is "suppressed," or shut down, the death toll would only reach a few thousand in the U.S.
Gates thought that was a bit too dire, saying:
Fortunately it appears the parameters used in that model were too negative. The experience in China is the most critical data we have. They did their "shut down" and were able to reduce the number of cases. They are testing widely so they see rebounds immediately and so far there have not been a lot. They avoided widespread infection. The Imperial model does not match this experience. Models are only as good as the assumptions put into them.
Another questioner asked Gates about a New York Times article that detailed a government report warning of "multiple waves" of the disease over the next 18 months. Fortunately, Gates also thinks the experience from China and South Korea is more optimistic than those projections:
"That article is based on a set of assumptions derived from Influenza and it doesn't match what has happened in China or even South Korea," he said. "So we need to be humble about what we know but it does appear that social distancing with testing can get the cases down to low levels."
Other highlights from the interview include:
- Therapeutics could be ready before a vaccine, which most think are 18 months away. Gates also said it's possible to get a vaccine to healthcare workers in perhaps a shorter amount of time than the general population.
- Once this happens, Gates predicts people will get digital certificates in order to show who has gotten a vaccine.
- Widespread testing and a national database of cases will be crucial to preventing the spread, as well as any rebound once the economy opens back up, according to Gates.
The question on most investors' minds: How long will it be?
When asked by one questioner the simple question, "how long will this go on?" Gates replied:
This will vary a lot by country. China is seeing very few cases now because their testing and "shut down" was very effective. If a country does a good job with testing and "shut down" then within 6-10 weeks they should see very few cases and be able to open back up.
The reason testing is so crucial is so that people who seem healthy but test positive can then self-isolate, limiting the spread of the disease. This has been crucial in countries that have done a much better job of testing than the U.S., such as China, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Thailand.
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