Implications Of The 2018 Midterms For The Next Congress And The 2020 Presidential Election

Alan: The following letter was written to an upstate New York History professor I've known since he was a boy.

Dear Michael,

Thanks for your email.

Political predictions are intrinsically dicey.

Here goes...

There is much ballyhoo about Republican gubernatorial victories in Florida, Ohio, Arizona (and almost certainly) Georgia. 

I will not deny the importance of these victories except to say that all four of these governors' mansions were already held by Republicans. 

And although the following circumstance has not been adverted elsewhere, Democrats netted seven governorships last night, and, in an even more fundamental way, "The Donkeys" did exceptionally well in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. (Democrats' stellar success in Pennsylvania where the court ordered the re-drawing of gerrymandered districts, spotlights Democrats' true strength in all  states where Republican gerrymandering has dedicated itself to suppressing the vote by using cartography to effectively disenfranchise tens of millions of American voters. https://www.azavea.com/blog/2017/07/19/gerrymandered-states-ranked-efficiency-gap-seat-advantage/) 

Notably, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin were the three states that provided Trump's 2016 Electoral College victory by a combined popular vote total of a piddling 80,000 ballots. 

Remarkably, Scott, DeSantis and Kemp won by a total of 150,000 votes out of nearly twice as many ballots cast in there three contests. 

As an aside, I will mention my fondness for a Biden-Harris ticket which will motivate people-of-color in all three rustbelt states, a robust turnout that did not manifest with Clinton-Kaine. 

Biden will also appeal to the working class instincts of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Now that these three linchpin states have again seen "the Democratic light," it is VERY hard to contemplate the national electoral map and not see Democrats re-taking The Oval Office in 2020. 

The Dems might also win Arizona - and are even more than likely to pick up all of Maine's electoral votes. 

If a Green Party senate candidate had not run in Arizona, it is likely Sinema would have beaten McSally. 

And Meighan McCain, a dyed-in-the-wool Republican, commented last night that Arizona is clearly "purple" now, a "color shift" likely to progress to "blue."

The Dems might also win Montana where Democratic senator John Tester was re-elected, and it is not inconceivable that the Donkeys could win Ohio, especially if the economy starts to tank. 

Speaking of which... 

I follow the financial press rather closely and Wall Street is expecting America's nearly senescent economic expansion to reach "the end of the line" in 2019. 

By 2020, it is likely that Trump's widely-touted economic victories (an economic trendline begun-and-sustained by Obama although American dimwits will not be convinced) will be heading down a steep slope, a decline that investment-savvy brother Gerald thinks could be worse than The Great Recession. 

If Ger's view is accurate, "economic collapse" could set the stage for another "New Deal." 

There is also the ongoing "browning of America" which paints an ever more favorable picture for The Democratic Party.

And here is another unspoken "factor." 

All of us, Republicans and Democrats alike, are subject to the assumption -- largely comprised of bluster, bravado, bombast, braggadocio, bluff and boasting -- that Trump is an unstoppable juggernaut.

He is not.

Essentially, Trump is a frightened, weak man, dependent on continual adulation to bolster his troubled and troubling ego, and only seems strong by virtue of Loud Mouth compensation.

Hillary got 4.56% more popular votes than His Deplorability and Trump's Base has alway peaked at 40%.

Make no mistake: Devious Donald's seeming strength is equal parts smoke and mirrors.

I will again mention that the 2020 electoral map looks lugubriously bleak for the GOP. 

Even Florida could flip Trump's slender 2016 margin of victory -- an anemic 1.2%. 

And lest we forget, Scott won his Florida senate seat by a razor thin margin of 0.4% - despite spending $16 million dollars of his own money. 

Similarly, DeSantis won by a mere 0.7%. 

These are not electoral mandates: they're statistical artifacts.

And all the time, in the background, only God knows what devastation The Mueller Report will visit on Cheater-in-Chief.

Concerning the nuts-and-bolts of our newly-elected Democratic Congress, the donkeys are perfectly situated to pass bills that clearly state Democratic (and even progressive) ideals, while obliging the Republican Senate to vote down every ideal that supports-and-advances The Common Good, The General Welfare, and a meaningful Social Contract. 

The resulting contrast between Democrats and Repugnicans will earn considerable political capital (with minimal risk) while forcing Republicans to reveal themselves for the malicious, spiteful, small-minded, self-interested, plutocratic suck-ups they are.

A Visit To "The Dark Side"

1A: Bloody Political Battles And The Forces That Keep The Nation Together (Or Not...)

http://paxonbothhouses.blogspot.com/2018/11/1a-bloody-political-battles-and-forces.html

Although "we" can argue that the demise of the United States (or at least Uncle Sam's global hegemony) has already begun to unfold -- and although we face the astonishing possibility that California (perhaps joined by other states) might secede from the "union" - an unlikely prospect that could become a probability if Red America double downs on Trump's fascist tendencies. 

Were that to happen, why not contemplate the possibility of the northern blue states seceding alongside California and joining Canada in a federation similar to the European Union?

On the surface, the prospect of "blue state secession" seems preposterous.

But would it be any more preposterous than Trump's election --- and the last two years of democratic deconstruction and wide-spectrum political monstrosity. 

I have long wondered if Lincoln was not unduly obsessed with "preserving the union." 

Had he let the Southern States secede, not only would we have avoided The Civil War (now under re-litigation), but the "Confederacy" would have fallen so far behind the world's overall indices of "development" that The Bible Belt would have requested re-entry when they saw "The North" enjoying the fruits-of-progress while the ante-bellum South sank deeper into the corrupting influence of slavery and the paralytic dead weight of a backward, 2nd (or 3rd) world agricultural economy. 

Dear Alan, Frances, and Jim,

I hope this note finds you all well.

Alan, it was a pleasure to listen to your audio file, which ends in hope for celebration.  

This morning I am left wondering whether there is cause for celebration or not.  The turn of the House is certainly to be celebrated, but I'm disappointed by losses in the Senate and by results in the FL, GA, and OH governors' races.  These state-level results (senate and governor) seem an ill omen for the Electoral College map.  On the other hand, Kobach was defeated in Kansas by a Democratic woman! Scott Walker is done!

My tendency toward pessimism is undoubtedly coloring my reaction to the returns.  And the GOP's stranglehold on all branches of the federal government is over--for the next two years.  But does it all, still, come down to Mueller?

Love,

Michael