Is The Tea Party Over?

The Mad Hatter's Tea Party

Nuts from the get-go.

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Tea party on the wane. "In relative terms, I see a Tea Party whose influence is gradually declining, not increasing. Its clout in Congress appears to be on the wane. Its ability to win intra-GOP contests is being newly challenged. And the organizational advantages it once enjoyed are no longer so clear-cut. The GOP rank and file that greeted the movement as an exciting infusion of new energy now regard it with weariness and skepticism. The far right, in turn, has focused much of its ire on the Republican Party itself, with increasing threats to start a third-party splinter movement. This seems unlikely to happen, but it reflects Tea Partiers' frustration at their inability to control the GOP more fully. We should not, however, expect a waning Tea Party to mean a suddenly rosy political landscape....That's not to say it couldn't have an impact in select races, and doesn't still have vocal proponents in Congress. But where it was once the engine of the GOP base, it is now more properly regarded as one faction among many in the Republican coalition--and a poorly organized, arriviste faction at that." Molly Ball in The Atlantic.

The tea party is over, but the grassroots is still alive. "2014 is shaping up as the year the Republican establishment is finding its footing. Of the 12 Republican senators on the ballot, six face primary competition, but only one looks seriously threatened: Sen. Thad Cochran of Mississippi....That doesn't mean the influence of the conservative grass roots has petered out. If anything, it demonstrates that conservatives have already reshaped the House to their liking in recent elections. This year's Senate class of Republicans, who won their last election before the emergence of the tea party, is merely a lagging indicator. Outside groups are still poised to play a significant role in open primaries, where it's easier to have an impact than against entrenched incumbents." Josh Kraushaar in National Journal.

A lot of tea partiers are running. But not many are winning. "Talk of a tea party takeover of American politics -- or the Republican party -- has faded of late....Tea party-aligned primary candidates have fizzled. In a recent NBC-Wall Street Journal national poll, just 23 percent of people had a positive image of the tea party while 41 percent had a negative impression -- the worst numbers for any individual or group tested other than Russian President Vladimir Putin. Simply put: It's easy to write the 'Tea Party is dead' story." But, according to a fascinating new project out of the Brookings Institution that aims to study the 2014 primary season (more of this please!), the tea party remains relevant." Chris Cillizza in The Fix.

Key finding: For insights on primaries, don't look to the horse races, but to the issues. "But the real lessons to be learned from this year's primaries are not in the horse race, they are in the issues and fissures within each political party -- and that's what we'll be looking at as the year goes on. On the Republican side the big question is obvious -- is the Tea Party growing, shrinking or holding steady?...We looked at all the Republican primary challengers in these first two states and categorized them according to ideology. As is clear, the Tea Party is the dominant source of challenges in Republican primaries. For those who are hoping they will just go away the presence of Tea Party inspired candidates (and their close cousins, Libertarians) means that the Ted Cruz and Rand Paul wings of the Republican Party are alive and well. They may not win many elections, and they still have a hard time recruiting talented candidates; nonetheless next year's Republican members of Congress will be paying close attention to them." Elaine Kamarck in Brookings's FixGov.