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Monday, March 31, 2014

Conservative Bafflegab: Inadequate Worker Skills Does Not Propel Unemployment.


KRUGMAN: 'Skills-gap' argument refuses to go away. "A few months ago, Jamie Dimon, the chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, and Marlene Seltzer, the chief executive of Jobs for the Future, published an article in Politico titled 'Closing the Skills Gap.' They began portentously: 'Today, nearly 11 million Americans are unemployed. Yet, at the same time, 4 million jobs sit unfilled' -- supposedly demonstrating 'the gulf between the skills job seekers currently have and the skills employers need.' Actually, in an ever-changing economy there are always some positions unfilled even while some workers are unemployed, and the current ratio of vacancies to unemployed workers is far below normal. Meanwhile, multiple careful studies have found no support for claims that inadequate worker skills explain high unemployment. But the belief that America suffers from a severe 'skills gap' is one of those things that everyone important knows must be true, because everyone they know says it's true. It's a prime example of a zombie idea -- an idea that should have been killed by evidence, but refuses to die. And it does a lot of harm." Paul Krugman in The New York Times.

SAMUELSON: A permanent economic slowdown? "Since the Great Recession, the bland (often unstated) premise has been that the economy would ultimately recover in full. Now, some economists question this and argue that the economic crisis created -- or exposed -- enduring weaknesses. We're at a turning point. Even when producing at "'full capacity,' the economy will grow more slowly than in the past or than had been expected. If true, this cannot be good. Economic growth serves as a political and social lubricant. It makes public and private goals more affordable and achievable. Slower growth would dampen gains in living standards. It would make it harder to reduce budget deficits without tax increases. It could threaten inflationary bottlenecks, as the economy hits maximum output before attaining 'full employment' at, say, 5 percent unemployment. This would complicate the Federal Reserve's policymaking." Robert J. Samuelson in The Washington Post.



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