Moderate Republican For Trump: Only Trump Can Restore GOP Sanity... By A Landslide Loss
Another poll, another huge — and growing — Trump lead
It seems like only this morning that we were updating our "state of the debate" graphic and talking about how John Kasich was pretty secure in his position and how the center of gravity in the 2016 Republican race was Donald Trump in about every sense of the phrase. It seems like it was only this morning, because it was only this morning.
Now there's a new national poll -- this time from Fox News, hosts of the Thursday debate that this poll helps to cement. Now, Kasich is in ninth, and Jeb Bush clearly in second, but otherwise it's the same, trend-wise. Kasich emerging from the mass of third-tier candidates, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Ben Carson (among others) tussling in the middle, Bush and Scott Walker tied for first in the alternate universe where there's no Trump, and Trump, ahead by a mile in this current universe.
Fox is very good about providing detailed information about precisely who likes each candidate, and has done so over time. That lets us create this rather amazing look at how Trump's support has grown since June, right around the time he launched. Up, up, up, up -- except with voters who make under $50,000 a year. They were early adopters, but now they've changed their minds a bit. Except: Margins of error and so on. But let's keep an eye on this over the long term.
If you're Donald Trump, you'll probably take "rocketing up in the polls except seeing a slight downturn in one constituency." If you're anyone else, you'd take it, too, probably even more eagerly.
There's another warning sign for Trump, though. The number of people who say they would never consider voting for him is exceeded only by the number saying that about Christie, who has not seen a moment of rocketing upward basically since Hurricane Sandy.
Notice, though, that more people have strong feelings about Trump. More people say they would vote for him, too. He's polarizing, that Donald Trump! Who knew.
Who knew.
Philip Bump writes about politics for The Fix. He is based in New York City.
No comments:
Post a Comment