Why People Behave In Their Own Worst Interest
http://paxonbothhouses.blogspot.com/2015/11/25-images-of-markets-regulating.html
Recently a study was released showing an appalling trend in the U.S. death rate for certain demographics. In particular, non-Hispanic whites with a high school education or less are substantially more likely to die between the ages of 45-54 than in the recent past. This is personal, since that describes much of my family.
Falling death rates are the norm
Over time, generally the death rate has fallen at a fairly rapid clip for most demographics. This study shows that trend has stalled for some demographics and even reversed for the demographic mentioned above, while some demographics generally considered even less privileged have exhibited a more typical continuing decline.
Why are lower class whites dying?
The study also notes dramatic increases in certain causes of death which are generally negatively associated with disapproved or stigmatized behavior by mainstream culture. Deaths caused by drugs, alcohol, and suicide figure prominently in the causes discussed by the paper.
Apparent from the paper, but not a focus, for reasons on which I shall not speculate, is the fact that these sensational causes explain only a fraction of the excess deaths observed. This fact has been largely missed in media discussion of the paper.
It is often said that suicide is murderous rage turned inward.
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Check out the published paper
The full paper, which is well worth reading, may be found here:
it is only 6 pages, several of which are references, and much of the content is tables and graphs. It is quite accessible and well worth reading for its data, if not its foci.
The major cause is not identified
I will focus here on the data from Table 1 to suggest that the causes given play, while contributory and noteworthy, are causally minor.
As the study notes, death rates have been falling in the developed world at a substantial clip for some decades, albeit from different starting points, across race, gender, nationality, and socioeconomic bracket. This trend has continued for most demographic groups and in other nations, however, for the period from 1999 forward we see a widening gap in outcomes for less educated 45-54 y.o. non-Hispanic whites in the U.S.
Republican presidential candidate, Pat Buchanan, the living American who has served longest as a White House senior staff adviser, observed: “The Republican philosophy might be summarized thus: To hell with principle; what matters is power, and that we have it, and that they do not.” “Where the Right Went Wrong"
Death rate 61% higher than to be expected
Table 1 shows an increase of 22.3% in death rate from 1999-2013 for this demographic. Had the already significantly higher death rate for this group held to the same ratio as in 1999 relative to the college-educated third of their age/race comtemporaries it would have improved by 24.2% instead. Such hypothetical performance would appear to be similar to that of other underprivileged demographics, and the populace of other developed countries.
Hence, the excess portion of the death rate among this demographic in 2013 appears to be roughly 38% of all deaths seen in the group. This is a catastrophe. How to explain it?
Suicide, alcohol, and drugs insufficient explanation
Well let's look at the death rate due to the suggested causes. Total deaths (not the increase in deaths) due to poisoning, suicide, cirrhosis, etc, amount to only 18.4% of all deaths in the group in 2013. This is a substantial overestimate of the relative effect on the group, since the aggregate rate of these causes has also risen in the more educated group. Even so, it would explain less than half of the excess deaths. Increased death rates from these causes explain just under 10% of all deaths in the subject group.
Why are folks dying ?
I can't answer the question I pose, but I can say that, smug cultural commentary aside, something bigger than self-destructive behavior is behind the death toll among underprivileged whites.
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