As GOP Lurches Right On Immigration, Sane Republicans Watch In Horror

It happened to the Whigs.

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By Greg Sargent August 8, 2014  

In Arkansas, GOP Senate candidate Tom Cotton is running an ad attacking Senator Mark Pryor over the border crisis that veers headlong into Ted Cruz/Steve King territory. In Michigan, GOP Senate candidate Terri Lynn Land is up with another border spot that is almost as bad.

It is increasingly sinking in with the political classes that the border crisis has pushed the Republican Party to the right on immigration — exactly the opposite direction party officials concluded the party should move after the 2012 election suggested it needs to be recast as more inclusive and welcoming.

Today David Nakamura and Sebastian Payne have a must read spelling out the internal party dynamics driving this — and note the alarm coming from a Mitt Romney adviser about what’s happening:

The crisis has empowered conservatives, whose more restrictionist views on the crisis and the broader issue of dealing with the estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants living in the country have taken precedence in the party. House Republicans are pushing for more deportations, and several of the party’s prospective 2016 White House contenders are moving to align themselves with the GOP’s pro-enforcement wing.

The tough rhetoric can help Republicans with their goal of making the mid-terms a referendum on Obama’s leadership in their bid to win the Senate. And it helps aspiring presidential candidates as they seek early support among conservatives who will be important in deciding the nomination.

But the strategy runs counter to the party’s announcement — after losing the presidential race two years ago — that its future depends largely on broadening its appeal to minority groups and that its viability as a national force in 2016 and beyond depends on making inroads with Latinos, one of the fastest-growing voting blocs.

“This is a short-term political gain for Republicans,” said Charles Spies, a former Mitt Romney campaign aide who is part of a coalition of Republicans advocating for immigration reform. “The problem, of course, comes on the national scale. . . . Without a friendly posture towards [Hispanics], we still face a massive demographic problem.”

The beauty of this is that Mitt Romney’s position — self deportation — was actually to the left of where Republicans are today, as I’ve tried to show. Indeed, GOP operatives with an eye on long term demographics have beenscreaming at the party for many months now that it is moving in exactly the wrong direction. Yet, as Nakamura and Payne show, that trend has only hastened, because the current crisis has strengthened the “restrictionist” forces inside the GOP.

This strengthening has also been fed by the apparent belief of GOP leaders that keeping the base in a lather is strategically crucial for the coming midterm elections. That may prove right. But it’s also locking Republicans into a far-right position heading into the next national election. And 2016 presidential hopefuls such as Rick Perry and Ted Cruz are seeking to align themselves with those “restrictionist” forces, which raises the possibilitythat the GOP primary debate on immigration will be, if anything, worse than the one that damaged Romney in 2012.

There’s been a lot of talk about Mitt Romney running for president one more time. It would be interesting to know what he thinks the GOP’s current posture on the issue means for the party’s chances in the next national election.

* PRO-IMMIGRATION REFORM REPUBLICAN WINS EASILY:Tennessee Senator Lamar Alexander easily won his primary yesterday, despite his opponents attacks on his vote for the Senate comprehensive immigration reform bill, and Robert Costa and Sean Sullivan sum up the meaning of it:

His survival is a testament to an emerging political reality: Republicans who support reform can survive the conservative backlash. It was also another demonstration of how much immigration has been overshadowed on the trail by other issues — in Tennessee, by health care and the economy. Alexander is one of three Republican senators who voted for this session’s sweeping reform bill…the other two — Sens. Lindsey Graham and Susan Collins — also skated to primary wins and avoided extended bouts over their votes.

GOP pollsters have long said primary voters don’t oppose reform with the vehemence some claim, and that now seems obviously true. Yet we were told endlessly that Republicans can’t, just can’t, embrace reform and risk the fearsome wrath of the right.

Greg Sargent writes The Plum Line blog, a reported opinion blog with a liberal slant -- what you might call “opinionated reporting” from the left.