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Friday, April 8, 2016

Trump Is Out And Ryan Is The GOP Nominee. How To Prevent Donald From Spoiling The Party?

Donald Trump
Even if he goes without a fight, Donald Trump may have changed the GOP forever. Above, Trump smiling at a March 21 news conference in Washington, D.C.

 "You Heard It Here First: Paul Ryan Will Emerge As Dark Horse Candidate At The GOP Convention"
December 1, 2015

Alan: Even if Trump does not form a third party (which I think unlikely) many of his rabid supporters will stay home on election day, and many others will "write him in."

It is impossible to predict how many of his mad men (and mad women) will be contrarians on November 8th.

Must-See Video Of New Hampshire State Representative And Trump Supporter, Susan DeLemus

http://paxonbothhouses.blogspot.com/2015/12/you-know-how-i-seemed-unhinged-i-am.html


Quos deus vult perdere prius dementat.

Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad.


However, Trump supporters comprise at least a third of The Republican Party and I would venture that 10% to 30% of them will vent their spleen, simultaneously punishing the GOP establishment. 

Although Ross Perot got 19% of the popular vote with his organized third party bid in 1992, it is not inconceivable that rage over Trump's "disenfranchisement" will have similar impact. 

In the 1992 race, here are the presidential election outcomes:

All 538 electoral votes of the Electoral College
270 electoral votes needed to win
Turnout55.2%[1]
44 Bill Clinton 3x4.jpg43 George H.W. Bush 3x4.jpgRossPerotColor.jpg
NomineeBill ClintonGeorge H. W. BushRoss Perot
PartyDemocraticRepublicanIndependent
Home stateArkansasTexasTexas
Running mateAl GoreDan QuayleJames Stockdale
Electoral vote3701680
States carried32 + DC180
Popular vote44,909,80639,104,55019,743,821
Percentage43.0%37.4%18.9%

Had Perot not been in the 1992 race, it is overwhelmingly likely that George H.W. Bush would have trounced Bill Clinton.

 Instead, Clinton won by a comfortable margin.

 In that same election year, the already Democratic Senate picked up one additional seat, while in the House of Representatives, the Democrats lost 9 sears but still held control by a margin of 258 seats to 176. 

Trump on Ice

He probably won’t be the nominee. So how will the GOP get rid of him?

This article appears in slightly different form in the Financial Times.
When my son was in the third grade, I went ice skating with his grammar school at the Wollman Rink in Central Park. On a weekday morning, the children had the place all to themselves. After a spell of skating, they took a break for hot cocoa while the ice was cleaned. But as they got ready to return, a rostrum was pushed out on to the ice. From behind it, an enormous orange-haired man in a double-breasted overcoat began boasting about how he had overcome the incompetents in city government to restore the facility in the 1980s. He seemed unaware that he was lecturing an audience of 8- and 9-year-olds. After a time, the children began to chant, “We want to skate! We want to skate!” Oblivious, Donald Trump continued his monologue.

Jacob WeisbergJACOB WEISBERG
Jacob Weisberg is chairman and editor-in-chief of The Slate Group and author of The Bush Tragedy. Follow him on Twitter.
Members of the Republican Party are now facing a version of this same problem: How do we get this megalomaniac off the ice? Trump suffered his worst defeat on Tuesday when he lost the Wisconsin primary to Ted Cruz by 13 points. This capped off seven days that began with Trump’s campaign manager being charged with battery for manhandling a female reporter at one of his events in Florida; continued with his saying that “there has to be some form of punishment” for women who have abortions; and culminated in his refusal to forswear the use of nuclear weapons in Europe or the Middle East.
Pundits who underestimated Trump’s potential last autumn have been hesitant to come out and state what has now become apparent: He is probably not going to be the Republican nominee after all. Even if he wins the New York primary next week, and others in the Northeast the following week, it is unlikely that he can gain the 1,237 delegates he needs to secure the nomination on the first ballot at the Republican convention. And if he does not win on the first ballot, Trump won’t win it at all—because the GOP doesn’t want to nominate someone who is certain to be clobbered by Hillary Clinton and to drag the Republicans down to defeat in state and congressional races. It turns out there is no convention rule requiring the party to commit suicide simply to serve Trump’s egomania.
Trump’s reaction to the Republican Party’s late scramble to reject him is much like the one he gave to my son’s schoolmates: Who cares what you want? As the Wisconsin results came in, he was apparently in too deep a sulk, or too purple a rage, to deliver even a pro forma concession speech. Instead, his campaign released an unhinged statement about “Lyin’ Ted Cruz,” calling him “worse than a puppet” and a “Trojan horse” for the party bosses who were “attempting to steal the nomination from Mr. Trump.” Attempting to steal the nomination is despot-speak for daring to challenge him in an election.
Trump is now a wounded animal, and as hunters know, these can be the most dangerous kind. The Republican Party will have to use care in depriving him of a prize that he thinks belongs to him by rights. The best-case scenario for the GOP would be Trump facing facts and backing out of the primary before the Cleveland convention in mid-July.
Narcissists like Trump cannot tolerate defeat, because their self-worth is bound up in the idea that they are winners. “My life is about victories,” he told the journalists Bob Woodward and Robert Costa in a jaw-dropping interview. “When I do something, I win.” Faced with defeat he may prefer to walk away, declaring the grapes sour and the game rigged while preserving his belief in himself as someone who never loses. In some ways, an establishment conspiracy to deny him the nomination gives him the exit strategy he sorely needs.

Even if he goes without a fight, Trump may have changed the GOP forever by exposing the vast gap between white working-class Republican voters and the party leadership. The legacy of his campaign may be a split into two parties, or at least two distinct factions—one nationalistic, nativist, and antitrade; the other internationalist, pro-immigration, and pro-corporate.
More immediately, Republicans face a possible Samson scenario in which Trump tears the party down around him. This is the course he has implicitly threatened by warning of riots if he arrives in Cleveland with the most delegates and is denied the nomination. It would not take much for him to instigate violence at the convention. The rabble that he has roused seems to crave it as a forbidden form of political expression. A rebellion will be harder to pull off if the party comes together around Cruz on a second ballot, as opposed to a backroom deal to nominate House Speaker Paul Ryan or another candidate who didn’t run in the primaries.
The only thing worse for the GOP than chaos in Cleveland would be a third-party campaign by a vindictive Trump. If he waits until the convention, it would be hard for him to secure ballot access as an independent in several key states. But even as a write-in candidate, he would draw significant votes from the Republican nominee, ensuring a Democratic victory. If rejection propels Trump to play spoiler for his party, he has the means to do so.
Read more Slate coverage of the Republican primary.

Melania Trump
First Lady
Or, First Centerfold?

Trump's Immigrant Slovenian Wife (And Nude GQ Model) Gives First Interview

Donald Trump: The Paranoid Style In American Politics And The Ongoing Festival Of Hatred

Update On Ivana Trump's Revelations Concerning Donald's Fondness For Hitler's Speeches 

"Mediocre Philosophy Sells. It Makes The Half-Literate Feel Smart"

Trump: For The Fearful, Random Decisiveness Is More Attractive Than Wisdom, Prudence, Truth

Spot-On Truth-Teller Donald Trump: The Most Important Thing Said At The Republican Debate

Moderate Republican For Trump: Only Trump Can Restore GOP Sanity... By A Landslide Loss

Video Of New Hampshire State Representative And Trump Supporter, Susan DeLemus, A Case Study In Madness

Donald Trump Describes His 1-Year-Old Daughter In Most Cringe-Worthy Video Clip Yet

First Lady, Melania Trump, Is A Slovenian Immigrant

Trump: For The Fearful, Random Decisiveness Is More Attractive Than Wisdom, Prudence, Truth

"Lies, Lies, Lies"
"On The Media" Explores Donald Trump's Appeal And His Historical Background

Evangelicals LOVE Donald Trump: 
We Are Known By The Company We Keep

Donald Trump: "Everything I'm About To Tell You Is A Lie." Supporters Cheer

The Self-Chosen Face Of The Republican Party: Not Any Old Asshole... An Asshole's Asshole

Trumpward Christian Soldiers

Trump's "Piece Of Ass" Quote

Don't Forget: Donald Trump Wants To Bang His Daughter
http://www.cc.com/video-clips/73fxht/the-daily-show-with-trevor-noah-don-t-forget--donald-trump-wants-to-bang-his-daughter


Trump Says Illegals Flooding Across Border...
... But In Which Direction? 

"Are Republicans Insane?" Best Pax Posts


Mark Twain, Adolf Hitler And The Dunning-Kruger Effect

New York Times Interviews David Dunning, Co-Author Of The Dunning-Kruger Effect 

McArthur Wheeler: Patron Saint Of American "Conservatism"

Stupidity For Dummies: The Study Of Ignorance Helps Understand How Intelligence Works


Alan: Despite Trump's encouragement of the worst angels of our nature, I want him to win the Republican nomination 
to reveal the terrified face of American conservatism.
Remember: If you're terrified, the terrorists won.
And you made their victory possible.


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