Ted Cruz Is NOT Going To Win The Republican Nomination

Alan: The consolidation of the mainstream press means that profitability is ever more determined to keep "horse races" alive. In fact, there is not a snowball's chance Cruz will win the Republican nomination. However, if he performs well in tonight debate - or if The Donald puts in a poor showing - the major media will make it look like Cruz is the heir apparent... or could be very soon.MONDAY, DEC 14, 2015

Sorry, but Ted Cruz isn’t going to win the Republican nomination

Pundits have been atwitter recently about polls showing Cruz gaining strength. But there are some problems

BOB CESCA

That loud, low rumbling noise you hear outside isn’t another fracking earthquake. Indeed, it’s political internet going indiscriminately bananas after a new poll showed Ted Cruz leading Donald Trump in the forthcoming Iowa caucus. But clearly anyone predicting Cruz’s ascendancy in Iowa, including very serious pundits like Chris Cillizza, is suffering from a tragically short attention span.

A few points:

1) Iowa isn’t a GOP bellwether. Recent history has proved that winning the Iowa caucus is no indication of a broader victory, at least for the Republicans who’ve handed meaningless Iowa victories to both Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum in 2008 and 2012 respectively. Sure, digging deeper into the record books shows candidates like George W. Bush and Bob Dole winning in Iowa then moving on to the nomination. This trend could change again, but the last two caucuses show that even if Cruz holds onto his lead and wins Iowa, it could be a one-hit-wonder victory. This leads us to the next point…

2) The Republicans love their flavors of the month. I’m old enough remember when Dr. Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina were showing signs of becoming a threat to Trump’s presumptive nomination. However, both candidates famously peaked and then faded. If you recall the 2012 process, nearly every candidate, including Santorum and Newt Gingrich, had their fleeting windows of success — nipping at Mitt Romney and forcing establishment columnists to ballyhoo the upstart challengers, only to disintegrate under scrutiny as both Carson and Fiorina have. While many onlookers have suggested that Donald Trump represents the same kind of phenomenon, he has already demonstrated far more staying power than someone like Michele Bachmann ever did in 2012. Like it or not, he’s here to stay. (More on this later.)

3) Cruz is slimy. While he’s the most ideologically and demagogic conservative candidate to rise to this level, short of Trump himself, Cruz tends to come off as a slippery door-to-door vacuum cleaner salesman. Authenticity and genuine sincerity aren’t traits often associated with Cruz, and his slick political acumen is transparently fake. His conservatism might overcome his shortcomings with the notoriously fringe-like GOP Iowa caucus-goers (see aforementioned Santorum and Huckabee victories), but it seems unlikely that he’d pass the authenticity sniff test among less radical GOP voters post-Iowa.

4) The Trump cult of personality is unstoppable. Most importantly, it’s difficult to overestimate the withering crazy-strength of Trump’s disciples and fanboys. A recent article in the conservative Townhall.com was quite revealing in terms of the perception of Trump among Republicans who dislike the bewigged frontrunner — but it also illustrated the magnetic power of Trump’s brand. Among some of these Republicans, Trump is inexplicably perceived as a closeted Democrat. Yes, really. It’s this kind of through-the-looking-glass, opposite-day projection that’s growing increasingly frustrating for not only those of us who cover politics every day, but casual observers as well, because it’s almost entirely divorced from objective reality. Nevertheless, the Trump cult exists and therefore needs to be addressed as part of the national debate.