One Big Reason Why Republican Politicians Cower Before Trump

Compendium Of Pax Posts About Donald Trump, Updated July 31, 2016
http://paxonbothhouses.blogspot.com/2016/06/compendium-of-pax-posts-about-donald.html

Donald Trump ran as a Republican more because it was an easier path to a believable presidential candidacy than because he's actually a Republican. He is a Republican, at least for now, having switched his registration from "unaffiliated" a few years ago. A master of branding, he knows that he's going to get a lot more respect cruising through the primaries in a brand-name car than one no one had ever heard of, so: Republican roadster, 2016 model.

His disdain for the party establishment is multi-faceted. He was paying his own way, at least in the primaries, so he didn't need to cozy up to big party donors and the apparatus that milks them. He was also broadly opposed by leaders in the party, who quickly and correctly realized that Trump had no respect for the party's policy orthodoxy that they'd spent decades learning, massaging and defending. He didn't need anything from them except a system for getting on the ballot: He didn't need their money or their soapbox or their input. It let him dismiss them outright, which, as it happened, was a hugely beneficial thing to be able to do in the current political moment. Other candidates, like Ted Cruz, could say they fought the establishment, but they were still embedded in it to some degree. Trump wasn't, and he could tell them to go to hell.

Yet Trump stridently demands loyalty from his own minions. He's loyal to them (until he isn't, we will add as a qualifier) and demands they be loyal to him (without qualification). Campaign manager Corey Lewandowski can grab a journalist's arm, lie about it and face criminal charges, and Trump stands by him -- until Trump's poll numbers slip. Lewandowski then heads out the door to CNN, where his loyalty to Trump shows no sign of abating.

One of the quiet fears of the Republican establishment as Trump grew in power was the prospect of President Trump running his own party system once elected. Say the GOP screens a number of candidates for a Senate race, picking the candidate who best comports with their policy goals and who has the best shot at winning. Then President Trump, out of the blue, tweets an endorsement of the guy who'd agreed with Trump on whatever issue the day happened to dredge up. The threat to the party's institutional power wasn't temporary, it was potentially permanent. As long as Trump seemed like he would lose, that didn't matter.

Trump still seems like he'll probably lose, but it's far less clear cut than it seemed a year ago. That puts people like House Speaker Paul Ryan in a weird spot. He needs to have a relationship with the leader of his party, but he also doesn't want to wind up tied to Trump's problematic racial and cultural comments if or when Trump fades from the political scene. So Ryan went through this complicated political calculus whereby he hesitated to endorse Trump, saying that he wasn't quite "there right now," and that he hoped Trump would moderate his positions. Trump ignored the idea, and Ryan, with nowhere else to go acquiesced. Ryan's motivations are complex.

Trump's aren't. Asked by The Post's Philip Rucker if he would back Ryan, whose primary race is coming up next week, Trump declined to do so. Why? "I’m just not quite there yet," he said. "I’m not quite there yet."

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David Nakamura 

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So Obama essentially offered stronger endorsement today of McCain and Romney/Ryan at his presser than Trump did.

5:09 PM - 2 Aug 2016

 
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But he's also refusing to endorse for right now because... what does he care? Ryan's primary competitor praised Trump and has echoed some of his policy proposals; that was enough to earn the guy a supportive tweet from the Republican nominee on Monday. Trump loves people who indicate that (to some degree) they love him, too. Buffeted by questions about his relationship to Russia, Trump nonetheless continues to soft-pedal his comments about Vladimir Putin, as obvious a bad guy as exists in American politics. Why? Because Putin said something nice about him once or twice.This isn't subtle. It's also not a no, any more than Ryan's was a no, but unlike when Ryan dragged his feet, Trump has all of the power. Ryan dragged his feet in an attempt to show that he was in a position of strength, only to demonstrate that, relative to Trump, he wasn't. Trump is refusing to endorse to remind Ryan and everyone else that he is in a position of power.

Trump declined to endorse Sen. John McCain, also facing an upcoming primary, clearly in no small part because McCain has been outspoken in criticizing Trump's comments about Khizr Khan. Trump passed on backing Sen. Kelly Ayotte, too, saying that he didn't know her. "I know she’s given me no support — zero support — and yet I’m leading her in the polls," he said. "I’m doing very well in New Hampshire." (For the record, Trump trails in New Hampshire, while Ayotte has a slight lead.) The important thing was that Ayotte hadn't paid fealty, so why should Trump endorse?

This is the nightmare Republicans see when they envision Trump with his hand on the Bible in January. Just like that, until his poll numbers collapse, they have another enemy on their flank besides the Democrats. And it's already here.

The only person in the Republican Party right now who is confident about his position is Donald Trump. He's worried only about the next three months, not about reelection every two years or about working his way up the ladder. His strength is itself fairly hollow; Trump loses his cool at the appearance of disrespect. Relative to the party he now suddenly leads, though, he's Goliath. Being loyal to Goliath may not pay many dividends over the long term, but it keeps you alive. And it's a whole lot easier than learning to use a sling.