Here's the Republican Party's problem, in two sentences: It would be a disaster for the party to shut down the government over Obamacare. But it's good for every individual Republican politician to support shutting down the government over Obamacare.
These smart-for-one, dumb-for-all problems have a name: Collective-action problems.
Politics is rife with collective-action problems. Political parties often benefit from passing a bill, or cutting a deal, even when it's in the interest of each individual politician to vote the other way. Keeping members in line during these moments is the key job of party leadership. Threats, flattery, fundraising money, and plum committee assignments are all deployed to keep members of Congress from undermining the group in order to help themselves.
The best way to understand the plight of the modern GOP is that the party leadership is no longer powerful enough to solve its collective-action problems.
In February 2011, Speaker Boehner and Majority Leader Cantor wanted to use the threat of a government shutdown to force concessions from the Obama administration. It was, after the 2010 midterms, a fight they thought they could win.
But they're doing everything possible to avoid a government shutdown now. First they tried to just move a continuing resolution to keep the government funded at current levels. Then they tried moving a resolution that kept the government funded at current levels and also held a vote on defunding Obamacare.
According to the National Review's Robert Costa, now they're giving up: They'll move a resolution to fund the government at current levels save for Obamacare and let Sen. Ted Cruz and his merry band of radicals try and pass it through the Senate. Once it falls apart, and a shutdown is near, they hope to be able to attract the votes to keep the government open.
It's worth stepping back and recognizing what this means: Not only is the GOP's leadership unable to solve their party's collective-action problems. They have to actively pretend to be part of the problem themselves.
"What we're seeing unfold in the House is something that has animated internal House deliberations all 2013: the end of power as we knew it," writes Costa. Absent a Republican president or Republican nominee for president, "power has shifted away from the Capitol leadership offices to Tea Party Inc and backbench."
But the question isn't just what happens to a Republican Party that can no longer solve its collective-action problems. It's what happens to the country if the Republican Party can no longer solve its collective-action problems. Is it a government shutdown? Or is it something worse, like a debt-ceiling breach?
No comments:
Post a Comment