Alan: It is "in the nature" of science to speak tentatively, to let statistics "play out" over long periods of time, to assume wide swings in normal variability. Irony, paradox and flux are key ingredients in "the scientific stew." On the other hand, it is "in the nature" of sound-bite ideologues to throw mental tantrums, to declare global warming a hoax after a single frigid day in late January. Like it or not, we live in a scientifically-predicated world. Your car, your computer, your surgeon would not exist except for "a certain mastery" of unfathomable complexity. It is an "inconvenient truth" that the acquisition of enough intellectual rigor to understand "macro level" (and "micro level") complexity is beyond the ken of many educated people: for the uneducated, the mere scope of complexity -- independent of understanding it -- lies between inscrutable and opaque.
Excerpt: "When satellite monitoring began in the late 1970s, about half the surface of the Arctic Ocean would be covered by ice at the end of the melt season, which usually occurs in September. By last year, that figure had fallen to 24 percent of the ocean surface, rising this year to 36 percent... Lately, a new low in summer sea ice has been set every few years, followed by a few years of recovery, followed by yet another low that typically exceeds the previous one by a substantial margin."
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"World's Top Climate Scientists Confess: Global Warming Is Just One quarter What We Thought - And Computers Got The Effects Of Greenhouse Gases Wrong"
(Alan: Loosey-goosey hrillness aside-- and keeping probability in mind -- notice that two of the computer models "got it right.")
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2420783/Worlds-climate-scientists-confess-Global-warming-just-QUARTER-thought--computers-got-effects-greenhouse-gases-wrong.html
***
Alan: It is "in the nature" of science to speak tentatively, to let statistics "play out" over long periods of time, to assume wide swings in normal variability. Irony, paradox and flux are key ingredients in "the scientific stew." On the other hand, it is "in the nature" of sound-bite ideologues to throw mental tantrums, to declare global warming a hoax after a single frigid day in late January. Like it or not, we live in a scientifically-predicated world. Your car, your computer, your surgeon would not exist except for "a certain mastery" of unfathomable complexity. It is an "inconvenient truth" that the acquisition of enough intellectual rigor to understand "macro level" (and "micro level") complexity is beyond the ken of many educated people: for the uneducated, the mere scope of complexity -- independent of understanding it -- lies between inscrutable and opaque.
Excerpt: "When satellite monitoring began in the late 1970s, about half the surface of the Arctic Ocean would be covered by ice at the end of the melt season, which usually occurs in September. By last year, that figure had fallen to 24 percent of the ocean surface, rising this year to 36 percent... Lately, a new low in summer sea ice has been set every few years, followed by a few years of recovery, followed by yet another low that typically exceeds the previous one by a substantial margin."
***
"World's Top Climate Scientists Confess: Global Warming Is Just One quarter What We Thought - And Computers Got The Effects Of Greenhouse Gases Wrong"
(Alan: Loosey-goosey hrillness aside-- and keeping probability in mind -- notice that two of the computer models "got it right.")
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2420783/Worlds-climate-scientists-confess-Global-warming-just-QUARTER-thought--computers-got-effects-greenhouse-gases-wrong.html
***
"World's Top Climate Scientists Confess: Global Warming Is Just One quarter What We Thought - And Computers Got The Effects Of Greenhouse Gases Wrong"
(Alan: Loosey-goosey hrillness aside-- and keeping probability in mind -- notice that two of the computer models "got it right.")
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2420783/Worlds-climate-scientists-confess-Global-warming-just-QUARTER-thought--computers-got-effects-greenhouse-gases-wrong.html
***
By JUSTIN GILLIS
Published: September 20, 2013
Sea ice in the Arctic Ocean underwent a sharp recovery this year from the record-low levels of 2012, with 50 percent more ice surviving the summer melt season, scientists said Friday. It is the largest one-year increase in Arctic ice since satellite tracking began in 1978.
Related in Opinion
Dot Earth Blog: The Vital Long View in Tracking Diminishing Arctic Sea Ice (September 18, 2013)
The experts added, however, that much of the ice remains thin and slushy, a far cry from the thick Arctic pack ice of the past. Because thin ice is subject to rapid future melting, the scientists said this year’s recovery was unlikely to portend any change in the relentless long-term decline of Arctic sea ice.
“I’m not at all surprised there was a jump upward — we’ve never set two record lows in a row,” said Walt Meier, a NASA scientist who has monitored sea ice for years. “I would say I’m a little surprised the jump is as big as it is.”
Last year’s ice extent was so low that this year’s recovery looks larger by comparison, Dr. Meier said. The main reason for this year’s growth, Dr. Meier added, was that the region was colder and cloudier through the spring and summer than in the recent past.
“We had cool conditions, cooler than the long-term average, and yet it is still going to be the sixth-lowest ice minimum on record,” Dr. Meier said.
Playing out over a generation, the decline of the Arctic ice cap has been one of the most striking effects of global warming, a change in the planetary aspect so large it would have been visible to an observer on the moon. “We could be looking at summers with essentially no sea ice on the Arctic Ocean only a few decades from now,” said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo., in a statement.
Contrary to popular impression, the melting of sea ice does not cause a rise of sea level, since the ice is already floating and displacing its weight in water. But the replacement of white ice with dark water does mean the surface of the Arctic Ocean can absorb far more heat in the summer, which could contribute to the melting of nearby land ice in Greenland, raising sea level.
During the winter, the Arctic plunges into near-darkness 24 hours a day, and a skin of ice grows across most of the ocean surface. But during the summer, the sun shines continuously. The key to the status of the ice cap is how much of it survives the summer melt season to become thick, resilient ice.
When satellite monitoring began in the late 1970s, about half the surface of the Arctic Ocean would be covered by ice at the end of the melt season, which usually occurs in September. By last year, that figure had fallen to 24 percent of the ocean surface, rising this year to 36 percent.
The National Snow and Ice Data Center announced Friday that the low point in sea ice this year had occurred on Sept. 13. The timing varies from year to year, and the agency always waits several days before making an announcement to be certain the ice pack has begun to regrow.
Lately, a new low in summer sea ice has been set every few years, followed by a few years of recovery, followed by yet another low that typically exceeds the previous one by a substantial margin.
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