The GOP must defend 72 districts in November that are rated as less Republican than Ohio’s 12th Congressional District. Democrats need to net 23 House seats to seize the majority. Many of those 72 races don’t currently look competitive, but last night’s returns show there’s good reason to believe some may come onto the map in the final weeks. Especially districts that are heavily suburban.
The trend of Democrats beating their 2016 performance by double digits continued. “Ohio 12 looks to have shifted by about 13 points towards Democrats relative to its partisan lean (how we would expect it to vote in a neutral political environment),” Micah Cohen notes on FiveThirtyEight. “That’s just about in line with Democrats’ average overperformance in these elections in the Trump era.” Remember, Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Pa.) eked out a victory in March in a district Trump won by 20 points.
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