Australia: You have no idea about your own country
NOVEMBER 01, 2014
A new report shows that Australians have a warped perception of their own country. Source: News Limited
AUSTRALIA, you may like to think you know this wide brown land of ours well, but it turns out we have some pretty significant blind spots.
The Perils of Perception report by market research company Ipsos has revealed that there is a significant gap between the perception and the reality of who makes up the Australian population.
“Aussies tend to be wrong when asked about the make-up of their population and the scale of key social issues such as immigration and unemployment,” the report states.
Based on a survey of about 1000 Australians, Ipsos found that we tended to over-estimate the number of Muslims in the population and underestimate the number of Christians.
Australians tended to over-estimate the number of Muslim people in the country. Source: News Limited
The average person guessed that there were 18 Muslims out of every 100 Australians, when in fact there are only two. Similarly we guessed that 45 per cent were Christian when the true percentage is 61.
Only 6 per cent of adults are unemployed, but the average Aussie thinks it’s 23 per cent; and we think 35 in every 100 Australians are immigrants, when it is only 28.
Of the respondents, about 33 per cent believed more than half of the population was made up of people born in a country other than Australia.
“Respondents who thought immigration was more than double the actual figure said the main reason they over-estimated is because they believe immigrants enter the country without being counted,” the report states.
More than half of Australians also incorrectly believe that the murder rate is rising.
There is a significant gap between the perception and the reality of who makes up the Australian population. Source:Supplied
The study covered 13 other countries with high internet penetration — Belgium, Canada, France, Great Britain, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden and the US — surveying a total of 11,527 adults.
On the report’s Index of Ignorance, we finished 9th out of the 14 countries. Italy was on top with its people giving the least accurate responses, followed by the US and South Korea.
Australia was equal fourth with Great Britain in exaggerating the number of Muslims in the country, behind France, Belgium and Canada.
Picture: NASA Source: Getty Images
***
A new report shows that Australians have a warped perception of their own country. Source: News Limited
AUSTRALIA, you may like to think you know this wide brown land of ours well, but it turns out we have some pretty significant blind spots.
The Perils of Perception report by market research company Ipsos has revealed that there is a significant gap between the perception and the reality of who makes up the Australian population.
“Aussies tend to be wrong when asked about the make-up of their population and the scale of key social issues such as immigration and unemployment,” the report states.
Based on a survey of about 1000 Australians, Ipsos found that we tended to over-estimate the number of Muslims in the population and underestimate the number of Christians.
Australians tended to over-estimate the number of Muslim people in the country. Source: News Limited
The average person guessed that there were 18 Muslims out of every 100 Australians, when in fact there are only two. Similarly we guessed that 45 per cent were Christian when the true percentage is 61.
Only 6 per cent of adults are unemployed, but the average Aussie thinks it’s 23 per cent; and we think 35 in every 100 Australians are immigrants, when it is only 28.
Of the respondents, about 33 per cent believed more than half of the population was made up of people born in a country other than Australia.
“Respondents who thought immigration was more than double the actual figure said the main reason they over-estimated is because they believe immigrants enter the country without being counted,” the report states.
More than half of Australians also incorrectly believe that the murder rate is rising.
There is a significant gap between the perception and the reality of who makes up the Australian population. Source:Supplied
The study covered 13 other countries with high internet penetration — Belgium, Canada, France, Great Britain, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden and the US — surveying a total of 11,527 adults.
On the report’s Index of Ignorance, we finished 9th out of the 14 countries. Italy was on top with its people giving the least accurate responses, followed by the US and South Korea.
Australia was equal fourth with Great Britain in exaggerating the number of Muslims in the country, behind France, Belgium and Canada.
Picture: NASA Source: Getty Images
***
Perils of Perception reveals how terribly wrong the public can be
FEATURES
- Author: Statistics Views
- Date: 20 Aug 2013
- Copyright: Image appears courtesy of iStock Photo
On 9th July, the Royal Statistical Society, Kings College London and Ipsos Mori hosted a debate which focussed on ‘tackling the divide between public views and the evidence’. The panel included RSS Executive Director Hetan Shah, BBC Home Affairs Editor Mark Easton, Office for Budget Responsibility chair Robert Chote, Jill Rutter of the Institute for Government, Professor Ken Young, programme director for Public Policy at King’s, and Bobby Duffy of Ipsos MORI.
The event was the second in a series organised by the three hosts, the first being Margins of Error on public understanding and trust in statistics, as part of the International Year of Statistics.
The research carried out by Ipsos Mori revealed fascinating new research that proved to be startling evidence of just how wrong the general public can be on statistics and how much statistics can be overestimated.
Bobby Duffy kicked off the event by revealing that we have a very odd view of our own population – Out of every 100 people in Britain, how many do you think are:
| Category | Actual | Mean Estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Christian | 59 | 34 |
| Aged 65+ | 16 | 36 |
| Black/Asian | 11 | 30 |
| Unemployed | 8 | 22 |
| Muslim | 5 | 24 |
| Single parent | 3 | 28 |
The overestimation in the number of Muslims is staggering with the general public believing that 1 in 4 of UK residents are Muslim, and this is also the case for single parent families. What also is extraordinary is the public’s view of teenage girls. The public were asked ‘In your opinion, which proportion of girls under the age of 16 years in Britain get pregnant each year?’ The under was emphasised. Choice of answers ranged from 1% or less to 40%. 31% were honest and admitted that they did not know, 24% answered between 2-5%, whereas a surprising 7% said 40% or more. In an average class of 30 girls, this would mean 12 of them getting pregnant each year. Overall, this gave a mean score of 15% when the actual answer is 0.6%.
Duffy also touched on immigration, with the question being asked ‘In your opinion, is the number of people coming to live in the UK from other countries too high, too low or about right?' 76% said too high and Duffy explained how these statistics are based on legitimate concerns and Ipsos Mori is conducting a full review of people’s attitudes towards immigration that will be available later this summer. But there is a huge overestimation of scale. When asked 'what percentage of the UK population you think are immigrants to this country?', the mean reply was 31% whereas the reality is 13%. Intrigued by this response, Ipsos Mori posted a follow-up to respondents, explaining that during the last census of 2011, the percentage was actually 13% and what factors had contributed to their answer. The reply was that 59% did not believe the census – choosing the answer that people come into the country illegally and are just not counted. Their answer was also influenced by what they saw in their local area. 23% admitted they were just guessing.
The overestimation in the number of Muslims is staggering with the general public believing that 1 in 4 of UK residents are Muslim...The public were asked ‘In your opinion, which proportion of girls under the age of 16 years in Britain get pregnant each year?'...a surprising 7% said 40% or more. In an average class of 30 girls, this would mean 12 of them getting pregnant each year. Overall, this gave a mean score of 15% when the actual answer is 0.6%.
The public was asked if violent crime is rising with 51% believing it is when it is not. However, this is a step forward from 2005 when 83% believed violent crime was rising. They were also asked how the government spends their yearly budget. 45% believed the government spends most on interest payments on the national debt when in fact, the government spends most of their yearly budget on healthcare, working age benefits, state pensions, education and schools first before interest payments. Fifteen times more than is estimated is spent on pensions than jobseekers allowance. When asked ‘Out of every £100 spent on welfare budget, can you tell me how much of that is claimed fraudulently?’the mean answer was £24 when the actual answer is 70p.
Robert Chote added in his talk that we should be wary that people can try to shape perceptions by choosing from alternative accurate presentations and also to be wary of level versus change, units of measurement and stock versus flows. People’s perception of where they stand in income and distribution of earnings is also misjudged with most people thinking they earn an average income. He recalled conversations when at the Institute for Fiscal Studies from BBC researchers asking about the average household, and he would reply that the couple would probably earn about £14,000 each and there would a long pause on the line, when the researcher would reply, they were thinking of a couple jointly earning £60,000, one child in private education, etc.
Mark Easton from the BBC began with a perception quiz of his own – ‘What proportion of England is built on?’ and the audience raised their hands as to their answers. The results varied with most putting up their hands for 20%. The actual answer is 2.27%. How have we got this so wrong? This information came from the biggest mapping work ever to occur in the UK – the UK National Ecosystem Assessment who thought about everything from footpaths, tarmacked gardens, etc. We spend most of our time in towns and cities, stuck in traffic jams, and we see a built-on Britain. Yet when we board a plane and look upon England below after take-off, we see mainly fields, rivers, hills with the odd town dotted here and there and yet we forget.
“By definition, the mass media is for the mass, it wants to appeal to the biggest audience, to reflect their experience of the world and to reinforce their views because challenging people’s prejudices and their perceptions dosen’t sell newspapers or magazines, and does not win over your audience on television or radio either”.
- Mark Easton, BBC Home Affairs Editor
Easton argued that we have to understand the way the media works. “By definition, the mass media is for the mass, it wants to appeal to the biggest audience, to reflect their experience of the world and to reinforce their views because challenging people’s prejudices and their perceptions dosen’t sell newspapers or magazines, and does not win over your audience on television or radio either”. Most editors will admit that they shape stories and slot them into the preconceptions of their audience. This is why a BBC researcher rang up Robert Chote and asked about a family earning £60,000 because that is the world according to the BBC researcher. “The fact is that all our sources of information offer only partial understanding. Perception is in a way the reality until something or someone comes along to change it.”
Jill Rutter argued for more comprehensible graphs, especially those where the 0 was clearly visible so the starting point is clear! We need to be clearer with people and engage with the public, but then take people behind the statistics and personalise the stories to tackle their perception and therefore change their attitude, rather than presume the public are locked into certain attitudes.
Governments can try to establish a trusted message, “OK, you don’t believe us but here are some UK citizens and you can judge.” The coalition’s first real policy act was to put together the Office for Budget Responsibility to give credibility to an area where the Treasury was non-credible – namely forecasting. Professor Young referred to a national problem – taking decision- making closer to the people who know the reality of the situation rather than randomly asking on a national level. "The nearer you make decisions to people, who have real-life experiences of these situations, rather than basing them on fractional multiples, the closer you are to a better solution. The counter to this is the 'postcode lottery'."
Rutter asked when and does any of this matter? The BBC series Pointless reveals some lack of knowledge with a recent question on Radio 4 programmes, “Which programme has been presented by John Humphreys since 1987?” – None of the couples knew the answer. Six out of 100 knew it was the Today programme. 100 people working in Whitehall would know the answer. There is an assumption as to how much people are interested in facts and what actually matters to people. Election time matters to people. "If we want good debates and elect people on the right basis, we need to ask that we see independent assessments of the policies that they want to push forward."
The day after the event, the research sparked much interest in the media which the RSS News reported on here. Bobby Duffy and Hetan Shah contributed blog posts to the New Statesman and The Huffington Post. It also sparked debate on Twitter and newspapers covered it from The Guardian to even the Daily Express advising their readers that immigration statistics are actually much lower than what the public believe!
So why do these gaps exist in the general public? Misrepresentation in the media is one. Statistical literacy would be another when faced with large or small numbers, how we are socially affected by these numbers in our psychology which would lead to emotional innumeracy, where we pick numbers that reflect our concerns, rather than looking at what the facts are. Duffy also suggested imprecision of questions from Ipsos Mori. We do tend to overestimate things that we are worried about and as Duffy said, in our own way, we are like Einstein, “if the facts don’t fit the theory, change the facts.” The getstats campaign needless to say will continue to pursue their goal of statistical literacy in this country.
(To watch video footage of the event, please see the Youtube video below)
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