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Sunday, July 20, 2014

Obama Gets Upper Hand On Putin

Alan: Conservative fondness for tough guys resulted in Smirk and Snarl's Whimsy War.
Conservatives would have immediately reprised their blunder had there been enough money in The Treasury to wage another decade-long, losing war - this time on Iran, the nation that ironically won The Iraq War.
In Ukraine, conservatives would have wet their panties had Obama descended to Putin's level, pretending that violence is a solution to problems when -- ever since World War II --"to the spoils belongs the victor."
Obama did a brilliant job describing the future of foreign policy in his poorly-received 2014 West Point commencement address. 
Belligerent conservatives are like teenage horndogs who win a lottery to lay in the hay with Lisa Ann.
They just can't wait to shoot their hot, hard cylinders. Boom! Splat.
I wish the impulse behind belligerence were more sophisticated than fondling dicks and guns.
Almost always, war distills to two things...
1.) ... politicians who need an enemy to crystallize the support that keeps them in power.
2.) ... compulsive "projection" of the "shadow," a psycho-spiritual mechanism first described by Yeshua of Nazareth in his metaphor of "the splinter and the log."

Matthew 7:1-5

The Splinter, The Log and The Eye

7:1 “Do not judge others, so that God will not judge you, for God will judge you in the same way you judge others, and he will apply to you the same rules you apply to others. Why, then, do you look at the speck in your brother's eye and pay no attention to the log in your own eye? How dare you say to your brother, ‘Please, let me take that speck out of your eye,’ when you have a log in your own eye? You hypocrite! First take the log out of your own eye, and then you will be able to see clearly to take the speck out of your brother's eye.  https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Matthew+7%3A1-5&version=GNT
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"Pope Benedict: From Now On, There Are No Just Wars... just war."
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For the time being, Israel remains "strong" because it has the "best" friend in the world -- the United States -- and also the "best" enemy, disposable Palestinian people.

Obama Seen Gaining on Putin as U.S. Prods EU n Sanctions

July 20, 2014

President Barack Obama’s response to the downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 over Ukraine reflects the conclusion of U.S. officials that time, evidence, and world opinion are increasingly on his side as he takes on Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Secretary of State John Kerry cited the tragedy today in an effort to prod Europeans into increasing sanctions against Russia, even at some peril to their own economies, in an effort to break Putin’s support for pro-Russian Ukrainian separatists. “We are trying to encourage our European friends to realize this is a wake-up call,” Kerry said on “Fox News Sunday,” invoking a phrase used last week by Obama.
U.S. officials, some speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss administration strategy, said the shooting down of the civilian jetliner —- blamed by the U.S. on pro-Russian separatists armed by Russia —- should ignite anti-Putin sentiment and push reluctant EU countries to catch up to the more stringent sanctions the U.S. had imposed last week. Dutch and other European citizens were among the 298 passengers and crew that perished.
This gives Obama confidence that the U.S. and EU can prevail over Putin in the short-run -- overcoming European reluctance to expand sanctions -- just as the Obama administration believes it will prevail in the long-run over a Russia that has a battered economy and a leader who is overplaying a weak hand, the officials said.

EU Shifting

While the timing for EU decisions isn’t set, two European diplomats said previously resistant members such as Italy now are shifting. The bloc’s foreign ministers are scheduled to meet July 22, and top leaders also may meet as early as this week, according to the diplomats, who asked that they not be identified because the plans haven’t been announced.
The U.S. and its allies have the capability to further squeeze Russia through punitive measures such as sanctions against entire sectors of its economy, though they want to leave open a course for Putin to back down, according to several officials.
Europeans may hesitate to ramp up a fight when they need Putin’s influence with the rebels to permit the recovery of passengers’ remains and an international investigation.
The EU foreign ministers at their meeting in Brussels will consider blacklisting more Putin associates and, for the first time, Russian companies accused of profiting from Ukraine’s woes.

Defense Industry

The U.K. is pushing for the EU to sanction the entire Russian defense industry, a British official said in London on condition of anonymity. France has repeatedly rebuffed calls to cancel its sale of two Mistral helicopter carriers to Russia.
The airline disaster follows months of U.S. efforts to persuade the Europeans to raise the costs on Putin for his efforts to destabilize Ukraine. Obama now is “absolutely prepared” to consider more sanctions, and the EU should do likewise, Kerry said on ABC’s “This Week with George Stephanopoulos.”
The top U.S. diplomat appeared on five U.S. Sunday morning talk shows to make the case for further action.
“Since sanctions are the administration’s default instrument of coercive statecraft, I would expect an escalation of U.S. sanctions pressure, specifically targeting more Russian financial institutions, energy companies and military firms,” said Mark Dubowitz, executive director of the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a nonprofit group that focuses on national security issues.

Putin’s Options

“People are looking for sanctions that are severe enough to change Putin’s mind, but won’t do harm to the U.S. and European economies,” said Andrew Weiss, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who specializes in Russia and Eurasia.
Putin has levers of influence too, including sending Russian forces into eastern Ukraine, as he did in Crimea; reducing natural gas supplies to Europe; and undermining international negotiations seeking to curtail Iran’s nuclear program, one of Obama’s top diplomatic priorities.
Some of the U.S. officials said they see Putin fighting a losing geopolitical battle over time as neighboring states such as Ukraine, once regarded as the breadbasket of the Soviet Union, shift toward western European economies. That also may make him unpredictable and dangerous, they said.

Russian Economy

The long-term strategy, these officials said, is to further isolate Putin, who they say is presiding over the decline of a country facing economic, demographic and social problems. While it has an economy comparable in size to Italy’s, Russia’s per capita gross domestic product, at $14,612, is less than half of Italy’s $34,619, according to World Bank data for 2013.
“From the beginning, Russia’s aggression in Ukraine has been a reflection of its diminished stature and influence in Europe and the world,” said former White House Press Secretary Jay Carney, who worked for Vice President Joe Biden during the Russia reset and once worked in Time Magazine’s Moscow bureau.

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