Despite big wins Tuesday night by Trump and Clinton, both party’s primary contests could drag on until July.
Donald Trump expanded his commanding delegate lead Tuesday night by winning primary contests in Illinois, North Carolina and the winner-take-all state of Florida, prompting Senator Marco Rubio to suspend his campaign and bringing the Republican front-runner one step closer to securing the party’s nomination for president. While Trump lost the winner-take-all state of Ohio to the state’s governor, John Kasich, slowing his potential path to the White House, the billionaire developer remains the odds-on favorite to become the party’s standard-bearer in July, absent a convention-floor fight that could see G.O.P. leaders elevate Kasich or Ted Cruz in defiance of the Republican electorate.
Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton also cleaned up Tuesday, shaking off her surprise loss last week to rival Bernie Sanders in Michigan by winning Ohio, Florida, Illinois and North Carolina, delivering a much-needed jolt of momentum to her campaign. Sanders gave Clinton a run for her money in each state, picking up a share of the night’s delegates, but remains hundreds of delegates behind in the overall count—a gap that may prove insurmountable, especially if Sanders is unable to convince Clinton’s hundreds of superdelegates to switch sides. (As of 7:00 A.M., the Missouri presidential primaries both remained too close to call, with Trump and Clinton ahead by just 0.2 percent each.)
Despite Trump and Clinton’s dominating performances, Tuesday’s results all but guarantee that both races will continue until this summer, and, in the G.O.P.’s case, potentially after. Sanders controls a massive campaign war chest, as well as the proven ability to continue raising huge sums of money—the Vermont senator raised more than $5 million in the day following his victory in Michigan—and has indicated he is willing to spend big to win, all the way until the Democratic National Convention in July. On the Republican side, the window is closing to prevent Trump from reaching the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the G.O.P. nomination, but party leaders have made no secret of their intentions to block him, no matter what. Even if Trump surpasses that threshold, establishment party figures have indicated they could change convention rules or even launch a conservative third-party challenge—a suicide mission, but one some Republicans see as a necessary corrective to the existential threat posed by Trump’s insurgent candidacy. Either way, Cruz and Kasich are likely to remain in the race for the long haul, ensuring a three-month slog to what is sure to be a chaotic convention in Cleveland.
In an election season defined by roiling anger toward Washington elites and economic policies that have contributing to a widening income gap, Kasich’s rousing victory in Ohio, and gee-whiz positivity, may be just a blip amid the wider revolt driving Donald Trump and, to a lesser extend, Bernie Sanders. Clinton has managed, with some success, to absorb that populist rage, running to the left by condemning Wall Street greed and turning against trade deals she previously supported. The Republican establishment, however, which long held together its unwieldy coalition of economic elites and working class whites by merging a pro-business platform with social conservatism, may not survive in its current form.
The astounding popularity of Trump, a nationalist with little ideology beyond his belief that he is the sole candidate capable of restoring American greatness, has exposed the lie at the heart of the party: the majority of the conservative base doesn’t care about small business principles. They just want someone who will keep immigrants out and tell it like it is. After all, the limited-government ideology preached by the G.O.P. may have made their lives worse. Whether or not Trump can secure the delegates he needs to lock up the Republican nomination—a feat that will require winning some 60 percent of all remaining delegates from here on out—the damage to the G.O.P. will have been done.
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