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Election 2016
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Ted Cruz has overtaken front-runner Donald Trump in the critical run-up to Wisconsin's April 5 GOP primary, amid a determined push here by anti-Trump Republicans to slow down the New York businessman's march toward the nomination.
In the Democratic contest, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has carved out a very narrow lead over Hillary Clinton in the same statewide poll released Wednesday by the Marquette University Law School.
Cruz, the senator from Texas, leads the Republican contest with 40%, followed by Trump at 30% and Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 21%.
Trump had the exact same level of support (30%) last month. But he has failed to pick up new voters despite the departure from the GOP race of Marco Rubio and Ben Carson. Instead, the biggest beneficiary has been Cruz, who doubled his support since then.
Views of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents in the state have grown more negative toward Trump in the new polling. Back in January, 35% had an unfavorable view of Trump.That grew to 45% in February and has grown again to 51% in March.
The Democratic race has been more stable. Back in January, former secretary of state Clinton led Sanders by 1 point, 45% to 44%. Last month, Sanders led 44% to 43%. In the new poll, Sanders leads 49% to 45%.
The poll was taken last Thursday through Monday, before Gov. Scott Walker's formal endorsement of Cruz, and before Trump responded with a fierce attack on Walker's record in Wisconsin.
In the race for state Supreme Court on Tuesday's ballot, Justice Rebecca Bradley held a lead of 41% to 36% over Appeals Court Judge JoAnne Kloppenburg. There was a big chunk of undecided voters — 18%.
Bradley — appointed to the court by Gov. Scott Walker — was viewed favorably by 32%, unfavorably by 28% and 41% didn't know enough about her to form an opinion.
Kloppenburg was viewed favorably by 30%, unfavorably by 35% and 35% didn't have enough information to form an opinion.
The polling reflects a powerful partisan current in the nonpartisan court race: Democratic primary voters break sharply for Kloppenburg, as Republicans do for Bradley.
In the fall race for U.S. Senate, Democratic challenger Russ Feingold led Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson by 47% to 42%, a significant tightening between the two rivals. Among likely voters, Feingold led Johnson by 48% to 45%.
The poll underscored the vulnerability of both presidential front-runners in Wisconsin. Trump and Clinton are widely viewed by Wisconsin voters as the likely nominees, according to the survey. But both now trail their rivals here in the battle for support within their parties. And both fare more poorly than their party rivals in hypothetical general election matchups against the other side.
For example, Clinton leads Trump by 47% to 37% in Wisconsin, but Sanders' margin is even bigger, 54% to 35%.
Clinton is tied with Cruz at 44%, but Sanders has a clear lead, 52% to 39%.
Clinton trails Kasich 39% to 48%, but Sanders has a slight lead over him, 46% to 44%.
In short, Trump trails by double-digits against both Democrats, while Sanders leads against all three Republicans.
Even though the poll was done before Walker's endorsement of Cruz, a clear pattern has emerged involving the governor and the GOP presidential race. Republican primary voters who approve of Walker back Cruz (45%) by a big margin over Trump (27%) and Kasich (18%).
But those primary voters who don't approve of Walker back Trump (44%) over Kasich (38%). Cruz gets only 16% of the Walker disapprovers.
Cruz benefits from that pattern, because there are far more GOP voters who approve of Walker than don't.
That schism could deepen further, since the political lines of debate between Walker and Trump have grown sharper since the poll was taken.
Overall, 43% of registered voters approved of the job Walker is doing while 53% disapproved, a negative picture but an upward trend. It is the first time in almost a year that Walker's job approval has topped 40%.
The poll also highlights the political, regional and demographic fault lines on both sides.
Among Democrats, there is a massive age gap, with Sanders winning voters under 30 by 71 points and Clinton winning voters 60 and over by 32 points. There is a gender gap, with Sanders leading by 14 among men but trailing by 3 among women.
Clinton leads narrowly among self-described Democrats, but trails by 20 points among independents, who can vote in either party primary in Wisconsin. Clinton is slightly ahead with moderates but Sanders is ahead with liberals.
There are also gaps among Republican voters. Cruz leads easily among college-educated voters, but is in a virtual tie with Trump among non-college voters. That's a danger sign for Trump, since he has won these blue-collar voters in most states, and they are a big part of the vote in Wisconsin.
The regional differences are bigger on the GOP side: Cruz is strongest in metropolitan Milwaukee, where the state's reddest counties are and where conservative talk radio has been pro-Cruz and vehemently anti-Trump. Kasich does his best in the Madison media market. And Trump does his best in the north and west.
Those patterns are consistent with months of previous polling that shows a massive regional divide among GOP voters in their views of Trump, with the front-runner enjoying a positive image in the more rural north and a very negative image in the more suburban and populous southeast.
Geography matters, because of the state's 42 GOP delegates, 24 are allocated to the winners of each congressional district (each of the eight districts is worth three delegates). Trump needs every delegate he can get to win an outright majority before the summer convention. The polling suggests that if he loses narrowly statewide, he would still have a chance to win six or nine delegates by capturing some combination of the 3rd, 7th and 8th congressional districts in northern and western Wisconsin.
Voters were asked which candidates they would be "very uncomfortable" with as president: 55% of all likely voters said Trump; 47% Clinton; 37% Cruz; 36% Sanders; and 10% Kasich.
The poll leaked on the Internet about an hour before the 12:15 p.m. release. Poll officials said the files were visible in a way they should not have been on the server.
"When they saw the files, it spread like wildfire," said poll director Charles Franklin. "It's unfortunate to my point of view that it did get out there."
The poll was conducted with 1,405 registered voters interviewed statewide. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.3%. There was a likely voter sample of 957, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1%.
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