Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal’s state has an unemployment rate higher than the national average.
Jindal Criticizes The Stupid Party: "Simply protects the rich so they get to keep their toys"
For six years running, the Republican trump card has been the economy. For the entirety of President Barack Obama’s term, the nation has been emerging from its worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Unemployment was high, growth was slow, good jobs were evaporating and people were losing health benefits, unable to get insured on their own.
Meanwhile, the business of the government wasn’t doing much better, facing perennial budget deficits and a daunting national debt. The political modus operandi has been simple: Run against Obama, no matter what you’re running for. There are clearly few filters on the strategy: Rep. Randy Weber, R-Texas, actually compared Obama, unfavorably, with Adolf Hitler (or “Adolph,” as Weber wrote in a tweet).
[2014: The U.S. Economy's Breakout Year]
Now, Republicans are in a quandary. That pesky economy is actually getting better. Nationalunemployment dropped in December to 5.6 percent, just over a percentage point lower than it was a year previous. More importantly, the economy added 252,000 jobs in December, and the November job numbers were revised up to 353,000, leaving January of 2014 as the only month of the year with fewer than 200,000 jobs created.
Further, recent statistics show the economy grew by a stunning 5 percent annualized rate in the third quarter of last year, representing the biggest expansion rate since 2003. In December, the Dow Jones industrial average hit 18,000 for the first time in history, gas prices have dropped below $2 a gallon in some markets, and even the federal budget deficit is dropping, lowering to $483 billion at the end of the fiscal year – the lowest of Obama’s presidency.
It may be good news for the public at large, but it adds another challenge for Republican candidates eyeing a 2016 presidential run. Without Obama on the ticket or a failing economy to attach to Democrats, how will they handle the issue as a political matter? And can Democrats benefit from the improving numbers?
“I think it’s a critical turning point” for both sides, says Christopher Larimer, a political science professor at the University of Northern Iowa. “Obama has got to make sure his administration takes credit for that turnaround,” while Republicans need to focus on the wage gap and other undone economic matters, he adds.
The issue plays differently for the myriad GOP contenders. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, for example, touted his experience in the business world when he ran in 2012, pledging to bring the national unemployment rate down to 6 percent in four years. Two years after Obama’s reelection, the president has exceeded that goal.
Governors have their own sets of issues. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, for example, presides over a state with a higher unemployment rate (6.5 percent in November) than the national average (5.8 percent that month). Jindal is also getting heat on the budget from both sides of the political spectrum, with conservatives claiming he didn’t cut the budget enough, and others saying he cut too deeply.
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie delivers his State of the State address Tuesday.
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie may have some explaining to do, as well, should he decide to run for president. The state's November unemployment rate was 6.4 percent, also higher than the national average. Meanwhile, Christie has had state fiscal woes, resulting in New Jersey’s credit rating being lowered a record eight times during his governorship.
In his State of the State address last week, Christie painted a rosier picture, touting the drop in unemployment and his efforts to keep companies in New Jersey, instead of moving overseas. “We didn’t do it the Washington way, by raising taxes,” Christie said. “We did it by cutting spending, shrinking government and fundamentally reforming the way government operates.” But he added that the Garden State’s economy is “not growing enough.”
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker has more to crow about when it comes to jobs: the Badger State has an unemployment rate of just 5.2 percent, and property taxes have been cut. But Wisconsin still has a $2.2 billion budget deficit to wrestle with, diminishing his economic record somewhat.
For senators considering a run, the economic news is tricky to handle, since GOP lawmakers have made a daily ritual out of blaming Obama for the Great Recession and its aftermath. After months of issuing statements calling the dropping unemployment rate good but not remotely good enough, the party has begun to acknowledge that things indeed appear to be on a long-term, upward trend.
But that, GOPers say, is a feather in their cap. It was the ritual of continuing resolutions and the sequester – two things Democrats point to as bad governance by the Republican House majority – that forced fiscal discipline, says Rep. Pete Sessions, R-Texas. Even though Congress has been unable to agree on separate appropriations bills, as it’s supposed to do, “we’ve actually moved spending back,” Sessions says.
Where Democrats may be most vulnerable is on an issue they claim as their own cause: wage stagnation. Corporate profits may be up, and the economy overall is chugging ahead, but salaries and wages haven’t moved, says Elise Gould, a senior economist with the Economic Policy Institute. The reason, she says, is that there are some 6 million “missing workers” who would like a job, but for statistical reasons don’t show up in the unemployment numbers.
“There’s not enough tightness in the labor market to put pressure on employers” to hike wages,” she says. “They don’t have to.”
House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, D-Md., said wages and labor participation would be better if the minimum wage were increased and if Congress approved the Democrats’ “Make it in America” bill to encourage domestic manufacturing. Asked about lagging wages, Hoyer told a reporters’ roundtable, “I hope we’re not in a new normal.” While productivity is up, compensation is not, he laments, and the entire recovery may be imperiled, since the economy is so heavily driven by consumer spending.
Sen. Kelly Ayotte, a New Hampshire Republican whose name had been bandied around as a potential vice presidential pick for Romney in 2012, says the economic recovery is far from complete.
“Whether it’s stagnating wages or education – all of these are issues that affect people’s ability to enter the middle class” or move up within the middle class, Ayotte says.
And Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, says Democrats will have to explain why wages haven’t grown as labor force participation isn’t what it should be. “We’re happy for the economy to recover,” Cornyn says, but “it’s premature to pop Champagne corks.”
It may be a mixed celebration for Republican presidential hopefuls, as well.
No comments:
Post a Comment