Obama brings illegal immigration to a standstill. Latinos "heading home."

On Obama's "watch," illegal immigration has come to a standstill. The number of undocumented latinos residing in the United States has declined by 13%. More illegals have been deported during Obama's first 3 years in office than Bush deported in 8.

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Net immigration between U.S. and Mexico at a standstill

By Juan Castillo

AMERICAN-STATESMAN STAFF

April 23, 2012

Immigration from Mexico, the source of the largest wave of migration in history from a single nation to the United States, has ground to a virtual standstill, according to a new analysis of government data from both countries.

Net migration from Mexico might actually have reversed in the past year or two, meaning more Mexicans are leaving the U.S. than arriving, according to the analysis released Monday by the Pew Hispanic Center. It linked the development to a number of factors, including weakened U.S. job markets, toughened border enforcement and more deportations, a long-term decline in Mexico's birthrates and slightly more favorable economic conditions in Mexico.

The precipitous decline in migration from Mexico has been documented for at least the past five years, and in 2008 the Mexican Migration Project at Princeton reported that net migration had fallen to zero. Still, the findings in the Pew report are notable given the previous four decades that brought 12 million current Mexican immigrants — more than half of whom came to the U.S. illegally.

"We've told pieces of this story in the past, but this is the most comprehensive look we've been able to put together," said Paul Taylor, director of the Pew Hispanic Center. "This is an historic wave which at least over a five-year period seems to have come to a standstill."

A key to the findings was access to 2010 Mexican census records, which senior Pew demographer Jeffrey Passel said were the first "that showed definitive numbers about people going back to Mexico."

According to the report, during the period from 2005 to 2010, a total of 1.4 million Mexicans immigrated to the United States, down from the 3 million who did so from 1995 to 2000.

During the same period, the number of Mexicans and their children who moved from the U.S. to Mexico rose to 1.4 million, about twice the number who did so in the five-year period a decade before.

Researchers said the trends suggest that the return flow to Mexico probably exceeded inflow from Mexico during the past year or two. The report does not contain annual or state data and does not separate legal and illegal immigration.

Of the 1.4 million who migrated from the U.S. to Mexico, a significant majority did so voluntarily, researchers said, although they did not discount the impact of heightened immigration enforcement among the confluence of factors contributing to the migration standstill.

The report estimated that 5 to 35 percent of immigrants who returned to Mexico might not have done so of their own will.

According to the report, as the U.S. deployed more Border Patrol agents, arrests of Mexicans trying to cross the border illegally plummeted from more than 1 million in 2005 to 286,000 in 2011. Passel said that figure was the lowest number of apprehensions since 1971, adding, "It tells a story of major change."

To some extent, the net migration drop appears to parallel the decline of the U.S. economy and withering job opportunities for Mexican immigrants, said Néstor Rodriguez, with the Population Research Center at the University of Texas, adding that the economy is a perennial facet of the immigration story.

A sociology professor whose expertise includes immigration and U.S. deportations to Mexico, Rodriguez said student researchers interviewed returning Mexican immigrants last year.

"Some (returning immigrants) say, ‘I'd rather be unemployed in Mexico than in the U.S.' Many are being deported. A good number are taking back money to start new businesses" in Mexico, Rodriguez said.

Passel, the Pew researcher, said the U.S. housing construction bust, in particular, hit a substantial number of unauthorized Mexican workers.

According to the Pew report, a growing share of unauthorized Mexican immigrants deported home said they will not try to come back to the U.S. In a survey by Mexican authorities, 20 percent of immigrants in 2010 said they would not return, compared with 7 percent in 2005.

The report also notes Mexico's changing demography and its plummeting birthrates over the past half-century. In 2009, a Mexican woman was projected to have an average of 2.4 children in her lifetime, compared with 7.3 for her 1960 counterpart.

Rodriguez said that with declining birthrates, there might be less pressure on Mexican families to immigrate to the U.S.

Contact Juan Castillo at 445-3635