I think Trump will also lose Nevada and, according to 538, Hillary is still 59.4% likely to win Florida. This is surprising and does not square with a number of recent polls which see Florida as a total toss-up, with some polls giving a clear edge to Donald Trump, the "Christian" favorite.
These relatively "certain" numbers give Hillary 322 electoral college votes, the same number Obama got in 2012.
Note that these calculations do not take into account the real possibility that Hillary can win Ohio, Iowa, Utah and Arizona (where the large Hispanic population might well turn out in unusually high numbers).
Here in North Carolina, Hispanics are totally pumped to defeat Trump, and I'm reasonably certain this sentiment is nationwide.
The poll was taken before the latest news about the FBI investigation into Clinton’s emails
Hillary Clinton has a six-point lead over rival Donald Trump in North Carolina, a battleground state, 9 days ahead of the 2016 election, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll.
The Democratic and Republican candidates are essentially tied in Florida, according to a second poll. Clinton has the support of 45% of likely voters, while Trump has 44%. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson has 5% of support, while the Green Party’s Jill Stein stands at 2%.
In North Carolina, Clinton has an advantage over Trump at 47% to 41%. Johnson gets 8%, and Stein isn’t on the ballot.
Clinton leads in North Carolina by a 61% to 33% margin among the 29% of those who said they have already voted. She is also ahead 54% to 37% among 36% of likely voters in Florida who said they have already voted. Among people who haven’t voted in Florida, Trump leads 51% to 42%.
Both polls have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points among registered voters and 3.5 percentage points among likely voters.