Hillary's In!

She took a populist tone in a video announcing the campaign. "'Americans have fought their way back from tough economic times. But the deck is still stacked in favor of those at the top,' Clinton says. 'I’m hitting the road to earn your vote, because it’s your time. And I hope you’ll join me on this journey.' ... That begins to touch on a campaign rationale — too many people have been dealt bad hands by the still-uncertain economy, but I’m on your side to help fix it — but leaves for later any detailed assessment of her policy prescriptions on the economy, other domestic issues or foreign policy. The video features real people, as opposed to actors, and includes an obvious appeal to both the Democratic working-class base and groups that formed the core of President Obama’s coalition — the young, minorities and gays, among others." Anne Gearan in The Washington Post. KRUGMAN: This election won't be about the candidates' personalities, but the parties' ideologies."For example, any Democrat would, if elected, seek to maintain the basic U.S. social insurance programs — Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid — in essentially their current form, while also preserving and extending the Affordable Care Act. Any Republican would seek to destroy Obamacare, make deep cuts in Medicaid, and probably try to convert Medicare into a voucher system. Any Democrat would retain the tax hikes on high-income Americans that went into effect in 2013, and possibly seek more. Any Republican would try to cut taxes on the wealthy — House Republicans plan to vote next week to repeal the estate tax — while slashing programs that aid low-income families." The New York Times. Expect Clinton to address herself to the nation's moms. "Based on her recent speeches and longtime commitment to gender equality, it’s safe to say we’ll be hearing a lot in coming months about family-friendly policies — perhaps paid leave or universal pre-K. Targeting parents is also smart politics. More than a third of voters during the last presidential election said they had children under 18, a CBS News exit poll found. The majority of Americans now support a law requiring paid family leave." Danielle Paquette in The Washington Post. Now, she's officially exposed to criticism from all sides. "While her grip on her party’s nomination seems commanding, it also makes her a singular target for a bevy of Republican candidates who now share a common enemy. ... One central challenge for Clinton’s nascent presidential campaign therefore will lie in sustaining momentum and generating positive buzz while under constant siege from Republican candidates, their more unruly political action committees, progressives who feel she is not liberal enough, and the media." James Oliphant for Reuters. BEUTLER: Democrats are worried about an uncontested primary. "Some of these Democrats with rattled nerves are less anxious about Clinton’s prowess against Republicans than about the fact that all of the party’s hopes now rest on her shoulders. Her campaign has become a single point of failure for Democratic politics. If she wins in 2016, she won’t ride into office with big congressional supermajorities poised to pass progressive legislation. But if she loses, it will be absolutely devastating for liberalism. ... The one real advantage of a strong primary field is that it creates a hedge against just such a crisis." The New Republic. COHN: The election is still a toss-up at this point. "If a primary candidate ever deserved the distinction of 'inevitable,' it is Mrs. Clinton today. Yet nothing would be inevitable about her chances in the general election. ... The general election is still 19 months away, and much can change, but today’s political environment is consistent with a close election that might tilt slightly toward the Republicans. ... There is some evidence that, all else being equal, it is modestly more difficult for the president’s party to hold the White House for more than two consecutive terms. If Mrs. Clinton does have an advantage in the general election, it is more likely to reflect the advantages of today’s Democratic coalition, not her strengths as a candidate." The New York Times.

SILVER: Clinton's odds are no better -- and no worse -- than even. "The truth is that a general election win by Clinton — she’s very likely to become the Democratic nominee — is roughly a 50/50 proposition. And we’re not likely to learn a lot over the rest of 2015 to change that. ... The economy will matter a lot to voters, and a better economy will help Clinton, the candidate from the incumbent party. ... Like Obama’s approval ratings, however, the performance of the American economy has been about average recently. ... Another theory — the so-called 'Emerging Democratic Majority' — holds that demographic trends favor the Democratic Party. We’ll have a lot more to say about this theory between now and next November, but it’s probably dubious too." Five Thirty Eight. DIONNE: To win, Clinton has to show she'd be a change from President Obama. "She must stay close enough to Obama — and he to her — to rally the large Obama base that will get her most of the way toward a majority. ... And she will have to go both to Obama’s left and right. Clinton needs to run hard against economic inequality, pledging to get done the things Obama couldn’t on issues including family leave, pre-K and higher education. She will have to be strong on expanding the bargaining power of the lower-paid. Trade will be the tricky issue here. ... She cannot break with Obama’s broad direction on foreign policy, but she can signal a personal toughness (that word again) to reassure voters who are somewhat more hawkish than the president. ... But if things get dicey, the Republican right will prove to be her best ally. She will ask repeatedly: Does the country really want to give control of both the White House and Congress to a bunch of right-wing ideologues whom most voters mistrust?" The Washington Post. BOUIE: The Democratic Party depends on Clinton. "For all of her flaws, Clinton is the best chance it has for keeping the White House. ... Clinton’s strength—her influence across the breadth of the Democratic Party—is a unifying force. Polls make it clear that almost every constituency in the party, from liberals and blue dogs to black Americans and working-class whites, is ready for her candidacy. The ideological divide in the Democratic coalition—the fight between Wall Street–friendly Democrats in the center and populist Democrats on the left—is dampened by her presence, not because of any sudden love or affection, but because the various factions see Clinton as the key to keeping the White House and saving the gains of the Obama administration from a far right—and come 2016, restless—Republican Party. It’s no surprise that the bulk of the Democratic Party machinery has fallen behind Clinton. Given the stakes, no one wants open warfare." Slate.