Workers harvesting Pinot gris grapes at Goschie Farms in Silverton, Ore., in September.
Alan: Shortly after The Great Recession unleashed and xenophobic scapegoating was at its worst, judge friend AC said: "The next time there's an economic boom in the United States, we'll be begging Mexican workers to come back. NSS.
DAVIS, Calif.—The U.S. and Mexico are increasingly competing for a dwindling supply of farm labor, according to a new analysis, a development that likely will have long-term implications for the U.S. agricultural sector.
The majority of hired farmworkers in the U.S., estimated at around 1 million, are Mexican, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. In California, Mexican migrants account for 90% of hired workers, according to independent estimates. But the pool of Mexican agricultural workers is steadily declining, with no indication that it will be reversed, according to J. Edward Taylor, professor of agricultural and resource economics at the University of California, Davis.
The decline mainly results from changes in rural Mexico, including shrinking birthrates and a rise in the availability of education. There are also more jobs in nonagricultural sectors in Mexico as the economy there improves.
To meet its needs, Mexico has been importing farm workers from Guatemala, said Mr. Taylor. “Mexico is both an exporter and importer of farm workers,” he said at an immigration conference Friday.
The falling birthrate in Mexico, to 2.05 children per woman, close to par with the U.S. at 1.95, is pushing fewer men to seek higher-paying fieldwork in the U.S. Household heads who have fewer mouths to feed are less compelled to leave families and home country behind to seek a job elsewhere. About two-thirds of immigrants working on U.S. farms are in the country illegally.
A rise in education has also spread to rural regions of Mexico. “Nothing pulls kids more quickly out of the field than a little schooling,” said Mr. Taylor.
A recent executive action by President Barack Obama to offer deportation reprieves and work permits to about 5 million undocumented immigrants will help some field workers who have settled permanently in the U.S. But this is likely to incentivize many beneficiaries to quit agriculture because legalization in the past has made workers more mobile and likely to seek better jobs, said Mr. Taylor. American farmers have called for a national immigration policy that will enable foreign workers to enter the U.S. legally, return to their home countries and then re-enter during crop harvests.
“Farmers, ranchers and their employees need a permanent solution,” said Paul Wenger, president of the California Farm Bureau Federation. He said growers are concerned about “chronic problems in filling all the jobs farmers have available.”
He said only Congress can provide “true, long-term reform” to enable immigrants to work legally in agriculture and keep experienced workers in the field.
Such measures may help only in the short term given the changes in Mexico, according to Mr. Taylor.
Wages on U.S. farms also have been creeping up, according to the Labor Department. But that likely isn’t enough to counter the trend, Mr. Taylor says, meaning that U.S. agriculture will have to adjust.
Going forward, U.S. farmers will have to decide whether to change the crops they grow, how to grow them and who to employ, said Mr. Taylor.
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Write to Miriam Jordan at miriam.jordan@wsj.com
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