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Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Just As Quickly As It Emerged, The American Oil Boom Is Crashing

Alan: Since Obama's decision to "rescue Detroit," U.S. automakers have added 14,000 permanent  jobs and even more collateral jobs in support of.them.
Compare this vigorous expansion with current estimates for the number of permanent jobs added by the Keystone Pipeline; somewhere between 35 and 3900.
Tokens and symbols have always played an important role in American politics.
What is new on the political horizon is the GOP's fixation on tokens and symbols, coupled with comprehensive obstruction of programs and policies that are massively beneficial. 

Texas Oil Field Producers Begin Layoffs
Drilling budgets across Texas and the world are being slashed. Crude prices today are almost 60 percent lower than they were six months ago. The last time the world saw such a rapid descent was thefinancial crisis of 2008. Before that, it was 1986, when two-thirds of Texas’ drilling rigs shut down in two years’ time.

It is a sharp turnaround for the Texas oil industry, which in just five years tripled its production and drove hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy.

For decades Texas oil had slowly been disappearing from the world market. The big companies were chasing oil buried under ocean floors off the coasts of Russia and Nigeria and in thick,
 tar-like crude in western Canada. Then came advances in hydraulic fracturing and the shale drilling revolution. Suddenly, what had been considered third-rate fields in Texas’ Eagle Ford and Permian Basin became some of the most sought-after prospects in the world.

Now concern is deepening that theU.S. oil industry is entering what could be a sustained downturn.

“It’s going to be devastating. For all practical purposes we lowered the barrier to entry so low that every Tom, Dick
 and Harry could go out and rent a rig,” said Fadel Gheit, a managing director with the investment firm Oppenheimer & Co. “The longer prices stay down, the more companies are throwing in the towel. We will see a lot more pain before we get any gain.”

As with those earlier busts, the cause is simple supply and demand. For years, the world’s oil supply, buoyed by the U.S. fracking boom and a period of relative stability in Middle East production,
 was on the rise evenas demand, driven by more efficient cars and economic struggles in Europe, was weakening. Eventually, the markets caught on.

For now, Texas continues to pump oil at increasing rates. But the oil industry operates on a delayed fuse. Contracts must be wound down. Billions of dollars in investments must be considered. 

As U.S. shale producers continue to announce drilling budget cuts of 20 to 35 percent this year, some analysts are predicting the state’s oil production will plateau in coming months. After that — if prices do not rebound — production will begin to decline. 

So far, the full brunt of the price collapse has not hit the Texas oilfields. But layoff announcements are flowing fast. 

Oil field services giant Schlumberger announced last week it was cutting 9,000 jobs, 7 percent of its worldwide workforce. Halliburton, which merged with Baker Hughes late last year, is laying offan undisclosed number of employees in its Houston headquarters on top of 1,000 job cuts across Europe, Africa, Asia and Australia. And the European giant Shell announced earlier this month that it would cut 5 to 10 percent of its workforce in western Canada’s oil sand fields, which have some of the highest oil extraction costs in the world. 

For now, economists are preaching that a downturn in production will not have the same devastating impact it had on the Texas economy in the 1980s. Then, the wave of defaults on loans to oil companies sent a shock wave through the finance sector, forcing the closure of seven of the state’s 10 largest commercial banks. 

The economy is more diversified now, said Mine Yücel, director of research for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. And the flip side of low crude prices — cheap gasoline — is expected to boost consumer spending. 

Even so, less demand for pipes and drilling equipment would threaten recent industrial expansion along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Already U.S. Steel has announced it is laying off 142 workers at a pipe-finishing plant in Houston. 

At a speaking engagement in Dallas last week, T. Boone Pickens, the outspoken energy investor, repeated his prediction that once U.S. production slows, prices will rebound and be close to $100 a barrel in 12 to 18 months. 

“I like to get out in front of it,” Pickens said. “We’ll see if I’m right.”


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