Insurance Industry Bets On Obamacare. GOP Bets On Failure. Which Would You Back?

When it comes to profitability, would you bet on seasoned capitalist pigs, or on the GOP's perennial cast of clowns? 

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Insurance industry bets on Obamacare. 

GOP bets on failure.

• BY GREG SARGENT

I’ve expected this for some time, and here it is: The Wall Street Journal reports that insurance companies are set to unleash hundreds of millions of dollars in advertising to entice potential customers on to the exchanges created by Obamacare. As the Journal puts it:

Insurers … are capitalizing on an unprecedented opportunity in a shifting health-care market. Some seven million Americans are expected to buy health coverage on the new consumer exchanges, where people can compare insurance plans side by side.

All of this was merely put on hold by the failure of the federal website, and now that it’s largely functional, these plans can proceed. All this is a reminder of just how much of a stake the industry has in the law’s success, and how much it is willing to spend to try to make that happen.

What’s striking is that this comes even as the absolute certainty among Republicans that the law cannot do anything other than fail spectacularly — indeed, that this has already happened — has only hardened. The New York Times reports that a whole batch of Republicans who were unseated in 2012 are running again for Congress explicitly because they believe Obamacare’s failure has given them an opening — and that they have replaced their previous focus on other issues with a single minded focus on the law.

Meanwhile, if we get a budget deal — it has passed the House, but its prospects in the Senate are uncertain — it will be partly because of GOP certainty in Obamacare’s failure. Paul Ryan is now claiming that one reason House Republicans supported the sequester replacement is so they can “focus on replacing Obamacare.” Newt Gingrichsimilarly asserts that budget deal is good politics for Republicans because “it strips away the danger that people will notice anything but Obamacare. And the longer the country watches Obamacare, the more likely the Democrats are to lose the Senate.”

There is no denying that enrollment is lagging behind predictions, which could be problematic over the long term, or that the disastrous rollout could plague Democrats through the 2014 elections. A batch of new polls (noted below) is cause for concern. But the Republican strategy for 2014 seems to place all of its chips on the idea that current circumstances couldn’t possibly change.

Indeed, Time magazine reports that House Republicans are wary of tackling other issues in 2014 precisely because it would risk getting in the way of the political “gift” Obamacare has bestowed on them. As Time puts it: “Afraid of squandering this unforeseen gift, Republicans are treading lightly, hoping they can freeze the electorate’s mood for the next 11 months.” One GOP aide notes: “Ideally, we’d freeze things the way they are in amber until November. But, obviously, that’s not possible.”

Polls have shown that only Republicans believe Obamacare can already be pronounced a failure or that it can’t be made to work. Everyone else — including the insurance companies, who are putting huge money on the line — appears to believe otherwise.

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* REPUBLICANS CAUGHT IN AN OBAMACARE REPEAL TRAP: Politico says what must never be said: The GOP repeal stance is deeply problematic.

Republican primary candidates are caught in an Obamacare fix. Even the slightest hint that a GOP contender might support anything besides all-out repeal of the health care law is drawing attacks from the right. So, increasingly, in races across the country, proposals to fix the existing law or retain any of it are being ruled out by Republicans eager to further burnish their conservative credentials. It’s a dicey situation for both establishment Republican candidates and their tea-party inspired opponents.

The certainty in Obamacare’s ongoing collapse appears to leave no room for any alternative strategy.