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Friday, October 11, 2013

Climate Science Uncertainty: "Outside Anyone's Imagination, Perhaps Even Dante's"

Why you really need to care about uncertainties in climate science. 
"What is scarier still is the uncertainty about the truly extreme outcomes. Our own calculations estimate that there is a roughly 5 percent to 10 percent chance that the eventual average temperature could be 6 degrees Celsius higher, rather than 3. What this would mean is outside anyone's imagination, perhaps even Dante's. We can obsess about all of these scenarios. A rise of three degrees would be bad enough. But when you factor in the uncertainty, there is even more reason to put global warming on an even more sharply decreasing path...Imprecise truths are the most inconvenient ones. We know enough to act now. What we don't know should prompt us to even more decisive action." Gernot Wagner and Martin L. Weitzman in The New York Times




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