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Sunday, May 22, 2016

Minority Turnout Determined the 2012 Election... And Will Have Even Greater Impact This Year


This year, Hillary will also get Arizona, North Carolina and maybe Georgia.

Dear F,

I realize you're agitated over "the polls."

Take heart!

First... The Raw Data

Fox News Latino poll: Hillary tops Trump by 39 points with Hispanics - Fox News Latino: “With less than six months to go before the presidential elections, Latinos overwhelmingly support Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton over presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump, according to a Fox News Latino poll released on Friday. The poll found that 62 percent of registered Latino voters would head to the ballot box for Clinton in November, while only 23 percent would support Trump on Election Day – a finding that many experts say is not surprising given the two candidates’ differing stances on issues important to Latinos.”

The Pew Center’s analysis finds that in 2012 Latinos made up 10% of the electorate, as indicated by national exit polls, up from 9% in 2008 and 8% in 2004.2 The analysis also shows that as a group, non-white voters made up 28% of the nation’s electorate, up from 26% in 2008.3 (and predicted to exceed 30% in 2016).

While just 48 percent of Hispanics voted in 2012, 66.2 percent of eligible black voters cast their ballots, up from 64.7 percent in 2008 compared with non-Hispanic white turnout of 64.1 percent, which fell from 66.1 percent four years earlier. 

In 2012, blacks comprised 12% of the electorate.

Notably, 2012 was the first election in which a higher percentage of blacks turned out than whites.

Hillary will win nearly three times as many Hispanic votes as Trump.

Hillary will win at least 4 times as many black votes as Trump.

Although I'm not much of a mathematician, I can say with near certainty that the Hispanic and black vote taken together will account for 25% of this November's voters. 

And when you add Asian-American voters -- who vote overwhelmingly Democratic in 2012... 73% -- the combined Hispanic, black and Asian vote will exceed 30% of the electorate. https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/race/news/2012/11/26/46016/5-fast-facts-about-2012-asian-american-voters-2/

Furthermore, women voters outnumber men voters by 53% to 47% -- and 55% of that 53% voted for Obama. 

Given that women are unprecedentedly turned off by Trump and that even more women will be inclined to vote for Hillary because she's a woman and a woman-making-history, I expect the percentage of women voting for Hillary will easily exceed the percentage of women who voted for Obama. This November, I believe women will outnumber men with the high end of their Hillary vote approaching (if not exceeding) 60%.

Nothing Donald can do can improve his status with women and as his misogynist past gets ever more press coverage, ever more women will turn on the prick.

I have not started following this year's statistics but I suspect that, currently, a hugely disproportionate number of white people in Southern states and sparsely-populated mid-West states are biasing the results of the few national polls that show Trump in the lead. 

For the sake of psychological hygiene, I encourage you to pay lopsided attention to the statistical analyses of Nate Silver and his fellows at http://fivethirtyeight.com/ 

Nate is brilliant at separating signal from noise and was preternaturally accurate predicting state-by-state outcomes in 2008 and 2012.

Here is an article that came to my attention belatedly:  It shows that the cumulative minority vote in 2012 was 29% and is predicted to be 31% this November. Since more than 70% of Hispanics and Asians voted for Obama --- and 90% of blacks voted for Obama (our second black president... Bill Clinton having been the first) --- I think 31% of the electorate is going to be a huge (if not decisive) factor, especially in big states like New York, California, Illinois, Florida and perhaps Ohio. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/02/03/2016-electorate-will-be-the-most-diverse-in-u-s-history/

Although I cannot imagine Texas turning blue this year, North Carolina (whose Republicans are taking a huge hit behind "Bathroom Bigotry") and Arizona - which, like North Carolina voted for Romney in 2012 - might well "turn blue" giving Hillary even more votes in the Electoral College than Obama got.

Remember: The media, especially America's "new" profit-driven media, wants a horse-race. 

Romney, Rove -- and the whole spectrum of increasingly lunatic conservatives -- actually believed Romney was going to win in 2012, and they clung to that belief right through election night when Karl Rove, on national television, backtracked from Reality in a bizarre, nationally broadcast rant that revealed not only his own cracked pot but conservative insanity from sea-to-shining-sea. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9TwuR0jCavk

Whenever you're freaked out by "a particular poll," check out Nate Silver at 538. 

Nate's analysis -- and more importantly, his metalevel analyses -- are trustworthy whereas "everyone else" is blowing chunks. (In 2012, Nate picked the presidential candidate who would win in EVERY SINGLE STATE. 

Did conservatives pay any attention? Of course not. 

Conservatives disdain good science because they MUST lie to themselves -- and, furthermore, demand that their "informants" lie to them -- because Truth destroys the cornerstone of the bogus belief system, summarized thus:

"The Hard, Central Truth Of Contemporary Conservatism"


Keep in mind that Nate has not really "cranked up" his operation yet since he realizes this election cycle is still in a state of preliminary froth.

FiveThirtyEight: http://fivethirtyeight.com/

Love

A

FiveThirtyEight: http://fivethirtyeight.com/


Paper | 

Minority Turnout Determined the 2012 Election

By: William H. Frey

 While it may seem like the 2012 presidential election has been analyzed to death, the recent release
of the Census Bureau’s November election survey points out the key role that minority voter turnout,
especially for blacks, played in  determining the outcome.

 http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2013/05/10-election-2012-minority-voter-turnout-frey


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