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Saturday, May 23, 2020

Seasonal Flu and COVID-19 Mortality: Contextualized Truth Makes COVID Less Alarming

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Dear F,

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Seasonal flu kills 291000 to 646000 people worldwide each year, according to ... The updated numbers, which do not include deaths during flu pandemics, are ...
As of today there have been 340,695 coronavirus deaths. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (You may want to save this link which was just sent me by Ed Myer. It tracks COVID cases and COVID deaths in real time.)

I will repeat what I said while still in Oaxaca.

I think COVID-19 is overplayed and that there is a significant element of hysteria in our response.

However, given COVID's ability to exceed the "carrying capacity" of hospitals in densely populated, high-risk municipalities, it is understandable that public health authorities have enacted extraordinary measures.

Furthermore... 

As an old person who is REALLY at huge risk of being killed by COVID, I have a very personal reason to be concerned.

But, as conservative points out (and it PAINS me to be in even partial agreement) we must also look squarely at the morbidity and mortality that will result from "the economic fallout." 

Predictions concerning the number of children who will die worldwide this year as a result of increasingly scare resources globally are ominous and depressing.

Having said all that, I also re-emphasize that I am delighted by the political outcome.

Still, truth is truth.

And although I no longer take oaths about anything, it looks to me like we have made a classic error by failing to evaluate COVID-19 in the revealing context of seasonal flu. 

Truth is like Schrodinger's cat: It is both absolute AND relative. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schr%C3%B6dinger%27s_cat

"Absolute" insofar as "the numbers are the numbers."

"Relative" insofar as "the numbers" must be seen in comparative context.

Full understanding of anything requires deep contextualization. 

And since the human psyche is unusually prone to fearfulness and consequent exaggeration/hysteria, these presentations -- fear/exaggeration/hysteria -- are themselves "febrile."

Remember Ebola?

"Ebola Is Seen As The Most Severe Threat To Global Health"
 
Here's a thought experiment for us basically well-healed, healthy white guys. 

Do you -- or anyone in your "social circle" -- know even one person who has died of COVID?

I do not use this thought experiment to dismiss the real threat.

As I've already said, we old farts are at very high risk.

And black people die at a rate six times higher than white people.

And whole Navajo families are dying of COVID disease.

But we should not be surprised that "it's complicated."

Again, I think Glenn Beck bears repetition.

"Glenn Beck Makes A Good Point"

Love

A

PS The following collection of Pax posts (relating to risk assessment) is relevant.

"Ebola Represents A Trivial Threat To Americans' Health"
http://paxonbothhouses.blogspot.com/2014/10/ebola-presents-trivial-threat-to.html  

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