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| Can Kavanaugh survive? 10 questions after a second woman accuses him of sexual misconduct. | |||||||||||||||
Deborah Ramirez told the New Yorker in a piece published Sunday night that Brett Kavanaugh exposed himself at a party when they were both freshmen at Yale and caused her to touch his genitals without her consent as she pushed him away. Acknowledging that she had been drinking and that there are some gaps in her memory, the 53-year-old called on the FBI to investigate what happened. “Ramirez, who was raised a devout Catholic, in Connecticut, said that she was shaken,” Ronan Farrow and Jane Mayer report for the magazine. “She remembers Kavanaugh standing to her right and laughing, pulling up his pants. … She recalled another male student shouting about the incident. ‘Somebody yelled down the hall, ‘Brett Kavanaugh just put his penis in Debbie’s face,’’ she said. ‘It was his full name. I don’t think it was just ‘Brett.’ And I remember hearing and being mortified that this was out there.’ “The New Yorker has not confirmed with other eyewitnesses that Kavanaugh was present at the party,” the story continues. “A classmate of Ramirez’s, who declined to be identified because of the partisan battle over Kavanaugh’s nomination, said that another student told him about the incident either on the night of the party or in the next day or two. The classmate said that he is ‘one-hundred-per-cent sure’ that he was told at the time that Kavanaugh was the student who exposed himself to Ramirez. He independently recalled many of the same details offered by Ramirez, including that a male student had encouraged Kavanaugh as he exposed himself. … “James Roche was roommates with Kavanaugh at the time of the alleged incident and is now the C.E.O. of a software company in San Francisco. ‘Debbie and I became close friends shortly after we both arrived at Yale,’ he said. ‘She stood out as being exceptionally honest and gentle. I cannot imagine her making this up.’ He said that he never witnessed Kavanaugh engage in any sexual misconduct, but did recall him being ‘frequently, incoherently drunk.’” The story added a new layer of uncertainty about Kavanaugh’s prospects just hours after Christine Blasey Ford formally agreed to testify under oath before Congress this Thursday about her allegation that he sexually assaulted her when they were both in high school – and covered her mouth when she screamed for help. Just as he did when Ford came forward the previous Sunday, President Trump’s Supreme Court nominee categorically denied Ramirez’s charge. He called the New Yorker story “a smear, plain and simple.” “I look forward to testifying on Thursday about the truth, and defending my good name — and the reputation for character and integrity I have spent a lifetime building — against these last-minute allegations,” Kavanaugh said in a statement. The White House issued a statement saying Trump “stands firmly” behind Kavanaugh. Aides also circulated a New York Times story that said its reporters “interviewed several dozen people over the past week in an attempt to corroborate [Ramirez’s] story, and could find no one with firsthand knowledge.” But Republicans on Capitol Hill are increasingly unsure about whether he’ll have the votes to get confirmed, even with Trump’s strong support. Here are 10 questions that will determine the outcome: 1) Will additional women come forward? Republicans are privately worried more shoes will drop. Attorney Michael Avenatti, who represents adult entertainer Stormy Daniels, claimed Sunday on Twitter that he has a client with information about misconduct by Kavanaugh in high school.
Ford alleges that Kavanaugh’s friend and Georgetown Prep classmate was present in the bedroom at the house party when he attempted to rape her. Judge told the Weekly Standard that the professor’s allegation was “just absolutely nuts” because, “I never saw Brett act that way. … I don’t remember any of that stuff going on with girls.” Judge said through a lawyer that he does not want to testify, and Senate Republicans are blocking requests by both the purported victim and Democratic lawmakers to compel him to appear. Buried low in the lengthy New Yorker story is this remarkable paragraph that shines a light on why Judge might be so reluctant to answer questions under oath: “After seeing Judge’s denial, Elizabeth Rasor, who met Judge at Catholic University and was in a relationship with him for about three years, said that she felt morally obligated to challenge his account that ‘no horseplay’ took place at Georgetown Prep with women. … ‘I can’t stand by and watch him lie.’ In an interview with The New Yorker, she said, ‘Mark told me a very different story.’ Rasor recalled that Judge had told her ashamedly of an incident that involved him and other boys taking turns having sex with a drunk woman. Rasor said that Judge seemed to regard it as fully consensual. She said that Judge did not name others involved in the incident, and she has no knowledge that Kavanaugh participated. … (Barbara Van Gelder, an attorney for Judge, said that he ‘categorically denies’ the account related by Rasor. Van Gelder said that Judge had no further comment.)”
No Democrats will vote for Kavanaugh at this point. That means that he’d go down if two of the 51 Republican senators defect. The two senators considered likeliest to flip are the moderate women from Maine and Alaska, who have remained officially undecided and are both supportive of abortion rights. Each is holding their cards close to the vest. Remember, it was Collins and Murkowski who teamed up with John McCain to block the repeal of Obamacare last year. Because Roy Moore lost the special election in Alabama last December, the GOP now has one fewer seat than it did then. If just one GOP senator defected, Vice President Pence would break the tie. But that’s a political headache for Republicans, too, because members like Nevada’s Dean Heller in 2018 and Cory Gardner in 2020 would inevitably face attack ads that accuse them of casting the deciding vote to put an accused sexual predator on the high court. Every Senate Democrat who had a tough race in 2010, 2012 and 2014 faced such messaging over their vote for Obamacare, and it was quite effective. Also keep an eye on Jeff Flake. Retiring this year, the Arizona Republican is thinking a lot about his legacy. Is this a vote he wants to define it? Because Republicans have an 11 to 10 majority on the Judiciary Committee, which he’s a member of, Flake could block Kavanaugh from being endorsed if he came out against him. Tennessee Sen. Bob Corker, the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, is also retiring and could be a wildcard.
It will be much easier to confirm Kavanaugh if the American people perceive that Ford is being given a fair hearing, and that her allegations are taken seriously. But the tradeoff is that Republicans also need to express support for Kavanaugh in the face of attacks from Democrats. “We’re going to plow right through it,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) boasted during a speech on Friday to a group of conservative activists. “Don’t get rattled by all of this.” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said on “Fox News Sunday” that Ford’s testimony alone won’t be able to sway his vote. “What am I supposed to do, go and ruin this guy’s life based on an accusation? … I’m just being honest: Unless there’s something more, no, I’m not going to ruin Judge Kavanaugh’s life over this,” said Graham, before the publication of the New Yorker story.  Editorial cartoonist Ann Telnaes illustrated how Graham has made up his mind:  5) Can Senate Democrats avoid show-boating?The White House is working to portray the allegations as politically motivated, and the opposition to Kavanaugh as partisan and circuslike. It’ll be easier to get Kavanaugh through if Democrats play into that narrative. Two members of the Judiciary Committee who plan to run for president in 2020, Sens. Kamala Harris (Calif.) and Cory Booker (N.J.), are most at risk of doing this. Sen. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii), who has drawn plaudits from the left and mockery from the right for her strong criticisms of Kavanaugh in recent days, is another wildcard. 6) Can Kavanaugh keep his cool in the hot seat? The nominee grew frustrated during tense practice sessions at the White House last week when he was asked questions that dug into his private life, particularly his drinking habits and his sexual proclivities, three people familiar with the preparations told Seung Min Kim and Josh Dawsey. There were certain questions he simply refused to answer, claiming they were too personal. “I’m not going to answer that,” Kavanaugh said at one point, according to a senior White House official. 7) Who will question Ford? “Ford’s attorneys said Sunday that they agreed to the hearing despite the committee’s refusal to let her speak after Kavanaugh’s testimony … or ask the FBI to look into her allegations in advance of her appearance,” per Karoun Demirjian, Amy Gardner and Seung Min Kim. “Ford’s lawyers also said they had not been told whether the Republican senators on the committee would themselves ask Ford questions or defer to staff or an independent lawyer to question her. It is customary that senators ask their own questions during public hearings. But there is a potential political risk if the all-male, all-white roster of Republicans on the panel — few of whom have any experience questioning sexual assault victims — grills Ford in a way that reminds viewers of 1991, when Anita Hill told the panel that Supreme Court nominee Clarence Thomas had repeatedly sexually harassed her.”
It took five days for the president to lash out at Ford. “I have no doubt that if the attack on Dr. Ford was as bad as she says,” he tweeted on Friday, “charges would have been immediately filed with local Law Enforcement Authorities by either her or her loving parents.” This prompted many women to share personal stories on social media of why they didn’t report sexual assaults to law enforcement. Collins, the swing vote from Maine, said she was “appalled” by Trump’s comments. McConnell called Trump a few hours later to tell him his tweets criticizing the professor were undermining his ability to shore up Republican votes. The president subsequently stayed quiet through the weekend, as he hit the links. It’s hardly a safe bet, though, that he’ll stay self-disciplined through the week. Imagine him live tweeting the hearing. As Graham put it on Fox, “I would advise the president to let us handle this.” 9) How many Republican politicians appear to trivialize the allegations? Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), who is challenging Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, issued a statement on Saturday to clarify comments he made about Ford the day before during a radio interview. He had said her accusation is “even more absurd” than what Hill said about Thomas because the alleged assault occurred when both Ford and Kavanaugh were teenagers. In his statement, he insisted that he was not saying sexual assault committed by teenagers is less serious. The kerfuffle highlighted the political peril even for candidates who won’t be forced to cast a vote on Kavanaugh, even in one of the reddest states in the country. Meanwhile, Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) said “no man will ever qualify for the Supreme Court again” if Kavanaugh is felled because of Ford’s allegation. “I’m thinking, is there any man in this room that wouldn’t be subjected to such an allegation? A false allegation?” the congressman said at an Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition event on Saturday, according to the Des Moines Register. “How can you disprove something like that? Which means, if that’s the new standard, no man will ever qualify for the Supreme Court again.” 10) Who else will get caught up in the whirlwind? Billy Bush’s career was destroyed by his comments to Trump on the “Access Hollywood” tape. But while NBC axed him from the “Today” show after the 2005 video emerged, Trump got elected president a month later. It’s possible that Kavanaugh could get confirmed, but others will have their careers derailed. Kavanaugh’s friend Ed Whelan offered to resign from his position as president of the Ethics and Public Policy Center, for example, after suggesting last week that Ford may have mistaken him for another student. He later deleted the tweets, and Ford said she wouldn’t confuse them. “Whelan’s offer [to resign] was not accepted by the board of the Washington-based center, which decided instead to place him on a leave of absence following the tweets, which he has since described as ‘appalling and inexcusable,’” Tom Hamburger reports. “In an interview Friday with The Washington Post, Whelan denied talking with the White House or Kavanaugh before tweeting his thoughts on the assault complaint made by Ford.” And a communications adviser to Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley resigned on Friday night as NBC was preparing to reportthat he’d been let go from a previous job in North Carolina for sexual harassment. Garrett Ventry denied the allegation, but he said he was leaving Grassley’s office “in order to not be a distraction” during the final push for Kavanaugh. 
Brett Kavanaugh testifies before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Sept. 5. (Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP)
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